Mining cost is a moving target (energy mix, hedges, ASIC efficiency, debt structure) and different miners have wildly different breakevens. Many can stay online longer than people think, and forced selling is often hedged or already priced in.
What is true: if spot stays below aggregate production cost for a sustained period, it pressures margins and can trigger miner capitulation events — which historically tend to be late-cycle flushes, not immediate bullish catalysts.
So I read this as: downside liquidity risk increases if we linger here… but it also builds the base for the next reprice once weak miners are washed out.
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