The stock price of Robinhood has rebounded nearly 23% since the lows of February 5, close to 71 USD, which seems to be a strong recovery for HOOD. Additionally, the company has just announced its best-ever financial year.
However, looking at the overall picture, there is a different story. Sluggish activity in the crypto market, reduced capital flow, and increased technical risks are all signs that this recovery may not be sustainable. Thus, downward pressure remains a major factor at this time.
Revenue support and crypto pressure are moving in opposite directions.
Robinhood has strong financial performance in 2025, with total revenues of about 4.5 billion USD for the year, up over 50% year-over-year, and net profits reaching nearly 1.9 billion USD. Fourth-quarter revenue increased by 27%, while earnings per share exceeded expectations, with substantial growth in revenues from options trading, interest, and Gold subscriptions.
These figures indicate that the company's core business is developing. Robinhood no longer relies solely on meme stocks or crypto trading but is diversifying its risk, making it more stable than ever.
The company has also launched a public testnet for Robinhood Chain, an Ethereum Layer 2 network built on Arbitrum to support tokenized stocks, trading 24/7, and DeFi tools. This is an important long-term step, not a short-term price-driving factor. However, crypto remains a concern.
Crypto revenue decreased by 38% year-over-year to about 221 million USD. This decline is related to Bitcoin's correction and weakening trading volume. Since crypto still constitutes a significant portion of activity, this slowdown impacts overall revenue, with fourth-quarter sales falling short of analysts' forecasts by about 50 million USD.
The market thus prioritizes that missed target.
After the earnings report, the stock price fell about 7% in after-hours trading, reflecting that investors still view crypto as a primary risk. Despite strong profits and new products, it cannot offset this weakness. Following disappointing performance on the crypto side, Robinhood's stock price seems to trigger concerns about the downward trend once again.
On February 2, the price of HOOD dropped out of the downward channel, resulting in a nearly 30% decline. Although 71 USD serves as a support level, pressure from crypto could still drag the price down further soon.
That is why the recovery since February 5 still looks fragile, as it occurs within a broader downward trend, not a return to an upward phase.
Weak cash flow and the risk of a Death Cross affect confidence
Looking only at price behavior is not sufficient, as capital flow indicators indicate that large investors remain cautious.
One key tool is the Chaikin Money Flow or CMF, which combines both price and trading volume to show whether large players are buying or selling. If the CMF is above zero, institutions are typically accumulating, but if below zero, it indicates they are exiting the market or have not yet entered.
Currently, Robinhood's CMF is still negative.
Even during the rebound of 23%, the CMF still couldn't rise above the zero line and remains below the downward trend line. This indicates that the current recovery lacks support from major USD holders.
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This factor makes the rebound unstable, and the moving average also warns of further risks
EMA or Exponential Moving Average gives more weight to the latest prices, so traders use it to assess the strength of trends. When the short-term average is below the long-term average, momentum weakens.
Robinhood is now facing a death cross risk, which occurs when the 50-day EMA drops below the 200-day EMA, with this signal often indicating a weak long-term trend.
A downward crossover signal occurred twice on January 30 and February 4, following the January monthly signal, where stocks dropped nearly 30%. Currently, the 50-day line is heading towards the 200-day line, and if another crossover occurs, downward pressure may increase.
There is still one weak positive factor.
OBV or On-Balance Volume compares the volume on days when stocks rise and fall to indicate who is controlling the market. Between September and February, OBV hit new lows while HOOD fell below its previous levels, reflecting that some retail investors are still accumulating stocks.
If crypto's weaknesses continue, even this support level may fade, and without strong demand from large wallets, retail buying alone often cannot change the trend.
The new downward trend points to important stock price levels for Robinhood
The chart structure remains downward.
Robinhood has been trading within a downward channel since October, where this downward channel occurs when costs create new lower highs and lows in a parallel trend line, indicating continuous but manageable selling pressure.
Currently, a new parallel channel is forming based on recent price movements, with this updated structure indicating a potential decline of more than 40% if the price breaches the lower trend line, with the first key price level for HOOD at 71 USD, which is the last support zone.
As long as the price remains above this point, there is still a chance of recovery even under pressure from crypto, but if the price falls below 71 USD, lower levels will play a role, and if that happens, the next important zone is around 55 USD.
At the top, resistance is still substantial, with HOOD shares needing to return above 87 USD, then 98 USD to improve the short-term structure. However, above that, the levels of 107 USD and 119 USD also serve as significant obstacles.
