Robinhood's stock price has risen nearly 23% since the low of 71 USD on February 5. On the surface, it looks like a strong recovery for HOOD. The company also shows its best financial year to date.
But the bigger picture shows something else. Weak crypto activity, decreased capital flow, and increasing technical risk suggest that this recovery may not last. Currently, downward pressure dominates.
Strong revenues and headwinds from crypto pull in different directions.
Robinhood had a strong financial year in 2025. Full-year revenues amounted to approximately 4.5 billion USD, an increase of over 50% compared to the previous year. Net profit reached nearly 1.9 billion USD. Revenues in the fourth quarter increased by 27%, and earnings per share exceeded expectations. Options, interest income, and Gold subscriptions grew significantly.
These numbers show that the core business is improving. Robinhood is no longer reliant solely on meme stocks and crypto trading. The company is becoming more diversified and stable.
The company has also launched the public testnet for Robinhood Chain. It is an Ethereum Layer 2 network built on Arbitrum. The purpose is to support tokenized stocks, trading around the clock, and DeFi tools. This is a long-term commitment and does not directly affect the price now. However, the crypto issue remains.
Revenue from crypto fell 38% year-on-year to around 221 million USD. The decline is due to Bitcoin losing value and lower trading volumes. Since crypto still accounts for a large share of the activity, total revenues were affected. Fourth-quarter revenues were about 50 million USD lower than analysts had expected.
The markets focused on this failure.
After the report, the stock fell about 7% after the market closed. This shows that investors still see crypto as a major risk. Strong earnings and new products could not offset the weakness. After the weak crypto numbers, Robinhood's stock price has raised concerns about a negative trend break.
The HOOD price broke down from the falling channel on February 2, leading to a drop of almost 30%. While 71 USD provided support, weakness from crypto may soon try to push prices down again.
Therefore, the recovery after February 5 looks weak. It occurs in an overall downward trend, and no new upward movement has started.
Weak money flow and death cross risk decrease confidence.
Price movements alone do not explain everything. Money flow indicators show that large investors are still cautious.
An important tool is the Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF. CMF combines price and volume to show whether large players are buying or selling. When it is above zero, institutions often accumulate. When it is below, they avoid or sell.
Right now, Robinhood's CMF is negative.
During the recovery of 23%, the CMF still failed to rise above zero. It also remained below the declining trend line. This means that the rise lacked support from large wallets.
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This makes recoveries unstable. Moving averages also warn.
An exponential moving average, or EMA, gives more weight to recent prices. Traders use them to evaluate the strength of trends. When the short averages fall below the long ones, momentum weakens.
Robinhood is now facing a risk of a 'death cross'. This occurs when the 50-day EMA falls below the 200-day EMA. It often indicates longer-term weakness ahead.
Two negative crossovers occurred already on January 30 and February 4. After the signal in January, the stock fell nearly 30%. Now the 50-day EMA is approaching the 200-day EMA again. If a new crossover occurs, downward pressure may become stronger.
There is only one small positive thing.
On-Balance Volume, or OBV, compares volume during up days and down days. It shows whether buyers or sellers dominate. Between September and February, OBV made higher lows, while HOOD made lower lows. This suggests that some private investors continued to buy.
If crypto continues to be weak, this support may also disappear. Without strong demand from large wallets, buying from smaller investors rarely suffices to reverse a trend.
The new downward channel shows important price levels for Robinhood stock.
The structure of the chart is still negative.
Robinhood has traded within a falling channel since October. A falling channel occurs when the price makes lower highs and lower lows between parallel trend lines. It indicates controlled but steady selling.
Now we see that a new parallel channel is forming after the recent price movement. This newer structure indicates a potential decline of more than 40% if the lower trend line is broken. The first important HOOD price level is 71 USD, which is the last support area.
As long as the price stays above this level, the rise still has a chance despite the pressure from crypto. A clear break below 71 USD could take the price to even lower levels. If that happens, the next important zone is around 55 USD.
On the upside, there is still a lot of resistance. The price of HOOD needs to rise above 87 USD and then 98 USD to improve the short-term structure. Above these levels, 107 USD and 119 USD pose significant obstacles.
