Robinhood stock price has risen nearly 23% since the bottom on February 5 near $71. On the surface, this looks like a strong increase for HOOD. The company also reported its best financial year ever.
But in a broader perspective, the numbers tell a different story. Weak crypto inflows, weakened cash flows, and increasing technical risks suggest that this rise may not last. For now, the downward pressure is still the dominant force.
Earnings growth and crypto weakness are pulling in opposite directions.
Robinhood delivered strong financial results in 2025. The revenue for the year ended at around $4.5 billion, up more than 50% from the previous year. The net income ended near $1.9 billion. Fourth-quarter revenues increased by 27%, and earnings per share beat expectations. Options trading, interest income, and Gold subscriptions grew significantly.
These numbers show that the core business is improving. Robinhood is no longer solely reliant on meme stocks and crypto trading. The company is becoming more diversified and stable.
The company also publicly launched the testnet for Robinhood Chain. This is an Ethereum Layer-2 network built on Arbitrum. The platform aims to support tokenized stocks, 24/7 trading, and DeFi tools. This is a long-term growth move, not a short-term driver for the price. But crypto is still an issue.
Crypto revenue fell 38% from the previous year, to around $221 million. This drop was linked to Bitcoin's decline and lower trading volumes. Because crypto still represents a large portion of the activity, the decrease affected total revenues. Fourth-quarter revenues were about $50 million lower than analysts' estimates.
The markets focused on this divergence.
After the reporting, the stock fell about 7% in after-hours trading. This showed that investors still see crypto as a significant risk. Even strong results and new products could not offset this weakness. After the disappointing crypto-specific developments, Robinhood's stock price appears to have triggered fears of a bearish pattern breakout again.
The HOOD price broke below the declining channel on February 2, triggering a fall of nearly 30%. Although $71 provided a support level, the crypto-led weakness may soon attempt to push the price further down.
This is why the rise since February 5 appears fragile. It occurs within a broader downward trend, not a new rise.
Weak money flow and death cross risk give weakened confidence.
Price development alone does not explain everything. Money flow indicators show that large investors remain cautious.
An important tool is Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF. CMF combines price and volume to show whether the major players are buying or selling. When it stays above zero, institutions usually accumulate. When it is below zero, they sell or stay away.
Right now, Robinhood's CMF is still negative.
Even during the rise of 23%, CMF has not managed to get above the zero line. It also remains below its declining trend line. This means that the rise lacked solid support from large wallets.
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This makes the rises unstable. The moving average gives yet another warning.
An exponential moving average, or EMA, places more weight on recent prices. Traders use them to assess trend strength. When short-term averages fall below long-term ones, momentum weakens.
Robinhood now faces the risk of a 'death cross.' This occurs when the 50-day EMA falls below the 200-day EMA. It often signals longer weakness ahead.
Two bearish crossovers occurred on January 30 and February 4. After the signal in January, the stock fell nearly 30%. Now the 50-day is approaching the 200-day again. If this crossover is confirmed, downward pressure may increase further.
There is only one weak positive move.
On-Balance Volume, or OBV, compares volume on up days and down days. It shows whether buyers or sellers dominate. Between September and February, OBV formed higher lows, while HOOD made lower lows. This suggested that some retail investors were still accumulating.
If the crypto market continues to be weak, even this support level may disappear. Without strong demand from large wallets, purchases from retail investors are rarely enough to reverse a negative trend.
A new declining channel points toward important Robinhood stock prices.
The chart structure remains bearish.
Robinhood has traded within a declining channel since October. A declining channel is formed when the price sets lower highs and lower lows within parallel trend lines. It signals controlled but persistent selling.
Now a new parallel channel is forming based on the latest price movement. This updated structure points toward a possible drop of over 40% if the lower trend line breaks. The first important HOOD level is $71, the last support zone.
As long as the price stays above this level, a rise has a chance to survive despite the weakness in the crypto market. A clear break below $71 will pose a risk for further declines. If that happens, the next major support zone is near $55.
On the upside, resistance remains heavy. The HOOD stock must regain $87 and then $98 to improve the short-term structure. Above that, $107 and $119 act as significant barriers.
