Robinhood's stock price has rebounded nearly 23% from the low of February 5, which was close to $71. At first glance, this looks like a strong recovery for HOOD. The company has also just released its best fiscal year ever.
The overall picture, however, tells a different story. Weak crypto activity, dwindling cash flows, and rising technical risks suggest that this recovery may not last long. So far, the downward pressure is clearly stronger.
The strength of the results and the attractiveness of cryptocurrency pull in different directions
Robinhood achieved strong financial results in 2025. The total revenue for the year was approximately $4.5 billion, a growth of over 50% compared to the previous year. The net income rose to nearly $1.9 billion. Fourth-quarter revenue grew by 27%, and earnings per share exceeded expectations. Options trading, interest income, and Gold subscriptions all saw significant growth.
These figures indicate that the core business is improving. Robinhood is no longer solely dependent on meme stocks and cryptocurrencies. The company is diversifying and stabilizing continuously.
The company also launched the public Robinhood Chain test network. This is an Ethereum Layer 2 network based on Arbitrum. The goal is to support tokenized stocks, provide round-the-clock trading, and offer DeFi tools. This is a long-term growth investment, not a short-term price driver. There are still issues on the cryptocurrency side.
Cryptocurrency revenues fell 38% year-on-year to around $221 million. This was particularly influenced by the decline in Bitcoin's price and lower trading volumes. Since cryptocurrencies still account for a large portion of the business, the slowdown cut overall revenue. Fourth-quarter sales fell about $50 million short of analysts' expectations.
The markets paid particular attention to this disappointment.
After the earnings announcement, the stock fell about 7% in after-hours trading. This indicated that investors still see cryptocurrencies as a significant risk. Although the profits and new products were strong, they were not enough to offset the uncertainty. After weak cryptocurrency performance, Robinhood's stock price has raised fears of a bearish pattern breaking.
The price of HOOD fell below the descending channel on February 2, triggering a nearly 30% drop. While $71 provided support, the weakness caused by cryptocurrencies may soon push the price down again.
Therefore, the rebound that started on February 5 appears tenuous. Everything is still happening within a broader downtrend, not a new uptrend.
Weak cash flow and death cross risk signals reduce confidence.
The price behavior alone does not fully explain the situation. Cash flow metrics indicate that large investors remain cautious.
One important tool is the Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF. The CMF combines price and volume to show whether large players are buying or selling. When the value stays above zero, institutions typically accumulate shares. When it stays below zero, they sell or stay away.
Robinhood's CMF is now negative.
Although the recovery was 23%, the CMF failed to return above the zero line. It also remained below its own descending trend line. This indicates that the price rally lacked strong support from large wallets.
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This makes recoveries unstable. Moving averages provide additional warning signals.
The exponential moving average, or EMA, places more weight on recent prices. Investors use them to assess the strength of the trend. When short-term averages fall below long-term ones, sentiment weakens.
Robinhood now faces the risk of a death cross forming. This occurs when the 50-day EMA falls below the 200-day EMA. Often, this indicates longer-term weakness.
Two bearish crossovers formed on January 30 and February 4. After the January signal, the stock fell nearly 30%. Now the 50-day EMA is again approaching the 200-day value. If this crossover is confirmed, the downward pressure may intensify.
Only one mildly positive aspect was found.
On-Balance Volume, or OBV, compares trading volume on up days and down days. It reveals whether buyers or sellers dominate. Between September and February, OBV formed higher lows, even though HOOD made lower lows. This indicated that some retail investors continued to accumulate.
If the weakness in cryptocurrencies continues, this support may also fade. Without strong demand from large wallets, retail investors' purchases are rarely enough to change direction.
The new descending channel indicates important levels for Robinhood's stock price.
The chart structure remains bearish.
Robinhood has been trading in a descending channel since October. A descending channel forms when the price makes lower highs and lows within parallel trend lines. It indicates controlled but ongoing selling.
Based on recent price movements, a new parallel channel is now forming. This structure suggests a possibility of over a 40% drop if the lower trendline breaks. The first important HOOD price is $71, the last support zone.
As long as the price stays above it, the recovery may succeed, even though cryptocurrency pressure continues. A clear drop below $71 would bring a lower level into the picture. If this happens, the next significant zone is near $55.
On the upside, resistance remains strong. The price of HOOD stock would need to rise back to $87 and then $98 to improve the short-term structure. Above, $107 and $119 act as significant barriers.
