XRP is currently hovering in that frustrating $1.35–$1.40 zone as of mid-February 2026 , a level that feels "cheap" after the higher prices we saw in late 2025, but one that keeps testing holders' patience. The token is down roughly 25–30% year-to-date, dragged by broader market softness, slowing ETF momentum, and no big breakout spark from recent events like Community Day.

While the long-term story around Ripple's utility, tokenization, RLUSD, and institutional plumbing remains compelling, the short-to-medium-term picture leans bearish for many analysts right now. Here's a clear breakdown of the bear case , why $1.00 (or even lower) remains a realistic target before any solid recovery might kick in during 2026.

1. Technical Structure Still Favors the Bears

The weekly chart continues to respect a descending parallel channel that has kept a lid on rallies since the post-ETF excitement cooled off. We're seeing repeated lower highs, with multiple failed attempts to push through $1.50–$1.56 resistance.

  • The 200-week EMA sits right around $1.41 and has acted as tough dynamic resistance. A weekly close below this level would be a classic bearish signal — one that has historically led to 40–50%+ drops in previous cycles.

  • Fibonacci retracement levels highlight $1.14 (0.236 fib) as the next major support zone. A clean break there would open the path toward deeper levels around $0.78–$1.00.

  • Momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) show bearish crossovers and weakening structure, while short-term bear pennants suggest another 20–25% leg down if $1.30–$1.35 gives way.

2.Macro Headwinds & Risk-Off Sentiment

Crypto is still tightly correlated to risk assets, and the macro backdrop isn't friendly right now. The Fed has dialed back expectations for aggressive rate cuts in 2026, which tends to hurt high-beta plays like XRP more than blue-chip coins.

  • XRP has underperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum during the recent pullback, a pattern that often continues in risk-off environments.

Seasonal factors aren't helping either , February has historically been a weak month for XRP (median returns around -8% in past data

Bear Case Price Targets for 2026

  • Base bear scenario — Slow grind lower to $1.00–$1.25 through Q1–Q2 (extended consolidation after failed rallies).

  • Breakdown scenario — Weekly close below $1.30–$1.35 triggers a fast move toward $1.00, then potentially $0.78–$0.90 (old cycle support zones).

Extreme risk-off case — Full crypto winter + macro shock → $0.50–$0.80 range (low probability, but within historical 40–60% drawdown precedent).

Final Thoughts

Right now, $1.30–$1.40 is whispering “opportunity” for XRP. It’s not flashy, it’s not headline-grabbing, but for anyone thinking long-term, it’s hard to ignore. Utility is real, and that counts even if the market isn’t paying attention… yet.

But let’s be honest: crypto doesn’t always play fair. The bear case doesn’t need drama, it just needs the current downtrend to stick around. Weak rallies, macro headwinds, fading conviction… suddenly $1.00 doesn’t feel so far away.

The flip side? A clean move above $1.50–$1.60, backed by volume and renewed ETF activity, could flip everything. $2+ starts looking possible again, and the market’s mood could change in a heartbeat.