$BTC

Today is the 11th, a double confluence overlap with the 14th.

As mentioned before, over the past 11 instances we’ve dropped 7 out of 11 times around these dates. The key isn’t just the date itself though, it’s the price action leading into it. As you can see, BTC is down -3% following the 11th.

Almost every pump into the 14th reversed because price pushed higher into that pivot. In fact, 5 out of the 7 times we pumped into the 14th, we saw a reversal.

What’s different this time is that we’re dumping into the 14th pivot instead of pumping into it.

That shift in dynamic matters. If we’re dropping into the pivot rather than pumping into it, the probability structure changes. Instead of further downside, there’s a real case for upside following the 14th.

With sentiment turning heavily bearish into this area, shorting here doesn’t make much sense. The better approach may be patience, sit on the sidelines and look for longs into the pivot to catch a potential upside move. (Given structure supports it)

That said… trend is your friend.