Just saw Citigroup say that the Fed's rate cuts might be delayed until May, and this really has quite an impact on the crypto space. Let me briefly share my thoughts:
Short term (1-3 months): Bitcoin has to endure a period of volatility first.
A delayed rate cut means that the liquidity of the US dollar won't be loosened quickly, and risk assets are generally under pressure. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $66,000, down 4.8% in 24 hours, with an RSI of only 43 (below 50 indicates significant selling pressure), and it may test the support level of $65,000 or even lower in the short term. Whales (large holders) may easily dump and run at this time, and volatility will definitely increase; a one-day drop of 30%+ like last December is not out of the question.
But don't panic, the long-term logic hasn't changed:
The halving cycle hasn't really kicked in: Historically, bull markets after halving usually start a few months later, combined with the implementation of rate cuts (even if it arrives in May), the double effect of liquidity + scarcity is still a high-probability event.
Institutions are waiting for entry points: Traditional funds may temporarily observe, but crypto-native institutions (like those specializing in digital currencies) will take advantage of the dip to accumulate. They are not betting on next month's rise or fall, but rather on the big market trend of liquidity easing in the second half of the year.
Institutional allocations will become more fragmented:
The conservative approach: Reduce Bitcoin holdings, convert some into cash or bonds to avoid the storm.
The aggressive approach: If it drops significantly, build positions in batches, especially if inflation data fluctuates (stagflation expectations), the “digital gold” attribute of Bitcoin will be recalled.
Summary: The next three months are like “the darkness before dawn,” with high volatility testing patience, but they also present opportunities for positioning. Ordinary people should avoid chasing highs and selling lows easily; dollar-cost averaging or waiting for clear right-side signals is more prudent. After all, macro policies will only delay but not disappear; the dual script of rate cuts + halving hasn't played out this year yet.
