The Market Isn’t Moving the Way Everyone Expected…
Lately, I’ve seen many people saying:
“BTC is going back to the 3x range.”
It sounds logical.
It feels reasonable.
But here’s the thing…
This exact story has played out before.
Let Me Remind You of the Last Cycle
When BTC was dropping, almost everyone said:
“It will bounce to 100k. I’ll sell at 100k.”
That number became fixed in people’s minds.
Confident. Certain. Unshakable.
But what actually happened?
BTC recovered to around 97k…
and then rolled over hard.
Only a small group survived that move.
Not because they guessed better.
But because they didn’t marry a round number.
They watched price.
They reacted to structure.
They protected capital.
Now, Back to Today
I’m not saying BTC can’t revisit the 3x zone.
It can.
But from my perspective, if we see a deeper correction, the 5x region is already a strong area where the market could show a serious reaction.
And remember:
The market does not care what the majority expects.
In fact, it usually moves in the direction that frustrates the most people.
The Real Lesson Isn’t About a Price Target
It’s this:
• Don’t try to predict the exact bottom
• Don’t let one number control your decisions
• Watch price action — not social media
The traders who survive long-term aren’t the best guessers.
They are the best risk managers.
They follow structure.
They protect capital.
They stay patient.
For now, my approach is simple:
Slow down.
Observe carefully.
Holding cash is better than blindly trying to catch a falling knife.
I’ll update my view when market structure changes.
Publicly, I share the general outlook.
The deeper study — I keep private.
