Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, is still stuck in a long downward trend. The company, led by Michael Saylor, has struggled to regain momentum as the stock's performance follows Bitcoin's decline.
When Bitcoin loses value, Strategy stock does the same. It increases volatility and makes the stock more sensitive to changing sentiments around digital assets.
MSTR breaks out
About a week ago, the Chaikin Money Flow showed a positive divergence compared to the price. MSTR showed a lower bottom value, but CMF increased. This indicated that more capital was flowing in, despite the price dropping. Therefore, it suggests that some investors were quietly accumulating shares.
One saw the positive effect immediately when MSTR rose by approximately 20% during the trading days Friday and Monday. The structure is still weak. The major indicators still show a decline, and a clearer rise requires that investors' interest in Bitcoin increases again.
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The Relative Strength Index has been close to oversold levels since November 2025. In January, we saw a slight improvement, but the RSI fell below 30.0 again last week. An RSI below 30 usually means that the stock is oversold, which often leads to a technical rise afterward.
The same thing happened in May 2022. Then MSTR rose by 123% after becoming oversold. The stock rose despite Bitcoin performing weakly. Investors viewed the strategy as its own growth company.
This cycle is different. The strategy is now strongly associated with its strategy around Bitcoin. The demand for MSTR stock therefore increasingly reflects how investors view Bitcoin purchases.
MSTR follows Bitcoin
In previous declines, MSTR could sometimes move independently of Bitcoin. During earlier oversold periods, the stock even rose when Bitcoin fell. This showed that investors believed in the strategy's software business and economy.
Now the correlation measures show that MSTR and Bitcoin are following each other more closely. Since November 2025, Bitcoin's decline has pushed down the strategy stock. More in the market see the stock as a Bitcoin-linked instrument rather than a regular tech company.
Therefore, the future of strategy now entirely depends on what happens with Bitcoin. If Bitcoin stabilizes or gathers again, MSTR may follow. If the crypto market remains weak, the strategy stock may stay in a bear market, even if they continue to accumulate Bitcoin.
Saylor remains positive
Michael Saylor, founder of the strategy, does not seem worried about the fall in MSTR's value. During an interview with CNBC, Saylor showed that the company is untouched by the decline in BTC. He said that volatility is a problem, but also the very point. He emphasized the company's view of accumulating Bitcoin instead of selling.
"We will not sell. Instead, I believe we will buy Bitcoin every quarter forever," said Saylor.
Thus, the strategy will likely continue to buy BTC, and MSTR is expected to continue following the same path until something major changes in the market.
MSTR's price levels have been identified
MSTR stock is now close to 133 USD, around the level of 137 USD which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This technical area is an important turning point. The further direction is likely determined by whether the Bitcoin price stabilizes and how the entire crypto market develops.
If the market continues downward, the recent gains will disappear quickly. If the price goes below 122 USD, at the 0.786 Fibonacci level, it could reach 104 USD, the year's bottom level in February. If sellers push harder, the next support is near 83 USD.
On the upside, the nearest recovery target is close to 157 USD. If the price regains that level, it could reduce the recent losses and improve the technical picture. If Saylor continues with the strategy of buying Bitcoin, a continued investment could attract new investors and support a stronger rise in MSTR stock.
