A Bitcoin (BTC) wallet that was referenced in the ransom demand sent to the media after Nancy Guthrie disappeared has now shown activity for the first time.
As new details emerge, attention around the case has expanded beyond just the police investigation. Traders have begun to bet on the case via the prediction market Polymarket. This raises ethical questions regarding speculation related to an ongoing investigation.
Nancy Guthrie disappearance: Important facts, ransom and FBI updates
BeInCrypto reported that Nancy Guthrie, mother of 'Today' show host Savannah Guthrie, was kidnapped from her home in Catalina Foothills in Tucson, Arizona. She was last seen on January 31 and reported missing on February 1.
Authorities found traces of blood near the entrance to the residence. Guthrie's phone, wallet, medication, and car were left behind. The FBI is assisting the Pima County Sheriff's Department in the investigation.
After the kidnapping, alleged ransom demands began to surface. People magazine reported that on the evening of February 2, the Tucson channel KOLD, affiliated with CBS, received an email containing a ransom letter.
The message demanded $4 million in Bitcoin by February 5 to ensure Nancy's safe return, and $6 million by February 9 if the first payment was not made. According to sources, the letter warned of serious consequences if the second deadline was not met.
The news outlet TMZ reportedly received the same email the following day. The FBI confirmed that they are taking the ransom email sent to U.S. media, which refers to the deadline on Monday, seriously.
On February 9, FBI Phoenix spokesperson Connor Hagan stated that the agency 'was not aware of' any further communication between the Guthrie family and the alleged kidnappers.
FBI Director Kash Patel has also released surveillance video related to the case as authorities enter the second week of the search for Guthrie.
Bitcoin wallet linked to Nancy Guthrie ransom demand shows activity
Meanwhile, TMZ reported that the Bitcoin wallet in the ransom letter has shown recent activity. However, they did not reveal the exact amount.
'For the first time, we have seen activity in the Bitcoin account listed in the initial ransom letter, which was sent to us at TMZ, as well as to two TV stations in Tucson. For various reasons, we will not disclose the amount,' wrote TMZ.
Citing a source, People reported that a small transaction, estimated to be 'a few hundred dollars,' was said to have been sent to the Bitcoin wallet reference provided in the ransom letter.
Although Bitcoin transactions are publicly recorded on the blockchain, it is not always easy to trace ransom payments. Identifying the person behind a wallet address usually requires additional investigative tools and cooperation from exchanges.
In some cases, attackers can move funds between multiple wallets, exchange them between platforms, or send them through cryptocurrency mixers. They do this to conceal transaction trails. Although blockchain transparency can aid investigators, layering and camouflaging transactions can make tracing and resolution significantly more complicated.
Nancy Guthrie arrest bet highlights the ethical dilemma of prediction markets
The case has also appeared on the prediction market Polymarket, where users speculate on whether an arrest will occur by a specific deadline.
The market, titled 'Nancy Guthrie kidnapper arrested by February 28?', was created on February 10, 2026, at 1:04 PM ET. Traders currently estimate around a 78% probability of an arrest by this date, but the odds fluctuate rapidly.
The emergence of an active market related to an ongoing kidnapping highlights larger ethical challenges. Turning a sensitive and ongoing criminal case into a speculative financial instrument can seem trivializing of the case's seriousness.
Additionally, such markets risk motivating the spread of misinformation, amplifying rumors, or distorting public opinion while police work is still ongoing.
Although such platforms are often described as tools for aggregating expectations, their use in active criminal investigations remains controversial, especially when the outcome directly affects the victims and their families.
