$AR is experiencing a weak rebound in a long-term downtrend, with prices firmly suppressed below EMA20 (1.8785), and the structure remains bearish.
🎯 Direction: Flat
Market Analysis: The 4H level has been continuously bearish, and although the latest K-line has a lower shadow, the closing price is still below the opening price, indicating persistent selling pressure. The buy/sell ratio remains below 0.5, suggesting strong market willingness to sell actively.
Hard Logic: Prices have broken below all key moving averages, and the RSI (21.07) has entered the oversold zone, but in a downtrend, oversold conditions may persist. Open interest (OI) is stable rather than decreasing, combined with a negative funding rate (-0.0171%), this is not a short squeeze, but rather a bearish-dominated pattern.
Depth data shows that the sell wall (Asks) is very weak above 1.724, while buy orders (Bids) are heavily stacked below, resembling a liquidity trap set by bears below key resistance levels, rather than genuine demand support. A rebound without volume is considered a continuation of the downtrend.
Risk Control Perspective: There are currently no clear signals to go long on the right side. Conditions for shorting are also not met (funding rate is not extremely positive, OI has not decreased). The best strategy is to wait for prices to rebound near EMA20, observing whether a positive funding rate + OI decrease forms a top structure, or wait for prices to break above EMA20 with significant volume and stabilize, as only then might the trend reverse.
Trade here 👇$AR
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