That's not a "cycle." That's a habituation zone.
Keith Alan from Material Indicators said something this week that should stop you from doomscrolling:
"If you look back at 2024, price spent considerable time in this range. 8 months of consolidation, plus the 2021 cycle top, combine to create structural relevance at this level."
Let me translate that for you:
The market has been trained to accept $60K-$70K as "fair value."
That's not bearish. That's maturation.
The Resistance Narrative Is Lazy
Headline says: "Bulls lack momentum to reclaim $69K."
Data says: Bitcoin is trading at $66,500 after the most aggressive Fed cycle in 40 years, a crypto banking crisis, and 59万人 (590,000) liquidations in a single day.
Do you understand how insane that is?
In 2021, a 3% Fed whisper would send BTC to $30K.
In 2026, we're consolidating at 5x the 2020 peak while the entire macro landscape is hostile.
That's not weakness. That's structural demand.
The February Panic Is A Trap
Let me show you something the fear-porn articles aren't showing:
Metric2026Historical ContextFebruary return-14.4%3rd worst since 2013Previous worst-31.03% (2014)Followed by 12-month recovery2nd worst-17.39% (2025)Preceded new ATH
Here's what actually happens after brutal Februarys:
2014: Down 31% → Accumulation for 18 months → New cycle
2025: Down 17.4% → ATH at $126K within 8 months
The pattern isn't "February red = bear market."
The pattern is "February washes out the weak, March-April rewards the patient."
Three red Februaries in 13 years. That's not a cycle. That's noise.
The Range Compression Setup
Pepperstone's head of research just published something you need to see:
Bitcoin is compressing inside a defined range: $68,400 - $71,700.
This is what happens before explosive moves.
The setup:
Break above $71,700 → Path to $80K opens
Break below $68,400 → $64K, then $60K tested
But here's the part they're not screaming:
Liquidation clusters are skewed SHORT above $70K.
That means:
Bears are over-leveraged
A push above $70K triggers forced buybacks
Short squeeze fuel is stacked at $70,035 - $70,532
The bears are the ones at risk. Not the longs.
The Macro Catalyst Nobody's Connecting
Wednesday's Nonfarm Payrolls report is the actual trigger.
Here's the trade:
Weak jobs data → Rate cut expectations rise → Dollar softens → Bitcoin rips
Strong jobs data → "Higher for longer" → Another flush
But here's what the perma-bears aren't telling you:
The selling pressure has already happened.
$14.2B in liquidations
590,000 accounts wiped
Strategy (MSTR) down 77% from peak
Goldman already rotated in Q4 [citation:previous]
The weak hands are GONE.
What's left are:
ETF holders who survived 40% drawdowns
Institutions adding $167M at these levels
6.39% of total supply locked in regulated vehicles
The Truth About $69K
Keith Alan said something that should frame your entire perspective:
"If a bullish catalyst emerges, additional consolidation here reinforces structural support. If the downtrend continues, this zone becomes stronger resistance than 2024."
He didn't say "we're doomed."
He said: "We don't have enough momentum YET."
That's not a death sentence. That's a waiting game.
#BTC #USRetailSalesMissForecast #USTechFundFlows #WhaleDeRiskETH