HYPEUSDT under pressure: Critical support in jeopardy, $26 million whale facing liquidation
Hyperliquid native token HYPEUSDT is currently undergoing the most critical technical test since 2026📉, with the price breaking below the 50-day exponential moving average, and the market structure and derivatives sentiment deteriorating in sync⏳. As of the time of writing, HYPE is around $28.85, with the weekly decline expanding to about 10%, as selling pressure continues to crush dip buying⚖️.
50-day EMA lost and immediate risk level🔻
The decisive break below the 50-day EMA ($28.85) marks a turning point into a bear market for HYPEUSDT⚠️. The technicals show a negative divergence forming at the 200-day EMA at $32.75, highlighting the severity of the current downtrend📊. Analysts have locked their sights on the December 21 low support area of $23.58 — once breached, the next liquidity zone will be directly targeting $20.82 (last October's low)🎯.
The daily momentum indicators confirm the strength of the reversal📉. The MACD formed a death cross on Monday, with negative histogram bars continuing to expand; the RSI has dropped to 48, falling below the 50 midline from last week's overbought zone📏. This pattern suggests that downward space still exists, and it has not yet entered the oversold zone.
Derivatives data: Shorts dominate the battlefield⚔️
CoinGlass data shows a clear shift in the futures market structure📉. HYPE's open contracts have shrunk by about 2% to $1.34 billion in the last 24 hours, indicating that deleveraging and liquidation waves are replacing new capital inflows💸. Liquidation data shows extreme asymmetry: long liquidations amount to 13 times that of shorts—longs lost $3.07 million, while shorts only $229,000🔄. The long-to-short ratio has dropped to 0.9037, consistently staying below 1.0 for the first time in weeks, with shorts dominating📊.
$26 million whale hangs by a thread🐋
Adding to market anxiety is Hyperliquid's most notorious 'suspected insider' whale address⚠️. This address holds a 5x leveraged long position, with a position market value of approximately $39.7 million, an average opening price of $38.67, and current unrealized losses reaching $13.7 million—representing a drawdown of about 171%💔.
The trader has repeatedly added margin to avoid liquidation, successfully raising the liquidation price from $20 to the current $26.15🛡️. However, as the HYPE trading price approaches this threshold—only 9.1% away—the market holds its breath😰. Once it falls below $26.15, the position will face forced liquidation, potentially triggering a chain reaction on an already fragile order book💥. The whale has not reduced its position since it was established on October 23 last year, earlier than the HYPE timeline for listing on mainstream exchanges⏳.
Institutional movements: treasury buying vs market sentiment🏦
As retail and speculative funds withdraw, the project entity Hyperliquid Strategies becomes a significant buyer against the trend📄. The financial report disclosed on Tuesday indicates that this institution spent $129.5 million to purchase 5 million HYPE at a weighted average price of $25.90💰. This deployment of funds is considerable, and the treasury still retains a cash reserve of $125 million💼.
The average price of $25.90 is intriguing: it closely aligns with the whale liquidation price of $26.15, yet is above the technical support level of $23.58, indicating that treasury operators view the current area as a value zone🧐. Whether institutional faith can hedge the dispersed retail sentiment remains uncertain❓
Arthur Hayes enters the fray🥊
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes injects a new variable into the HYPE narrative🔥. This Monday, Hayes publicly challenged former Multicoin Capital executive Kyle Samani to a $100,000 charitable wager: HYPE will outperform any altcoin with a market cap over $1 billion chosen by Samani over the six months ending July 31🚀.
This bet originates from Samani's sharp criticism of Hyperliquid on February 8, accusing the founder of a vague background, lax attitude toward illegal activities, and concerns over closed-source, licensed infrastructure🎙️. Intriguingly, Samani's comments came just after concluding a decade-long tenure at Multicoin—during which the firm's on-chain treasury reportedly accumulated over $40 million in HYPE exposure before his departure🤔, raising market speculation about motive and timing.
Technical roadmap: Current position of HYPEUSDT🗺️
The current battleground for bulls and bears is at $28.85⚔️. Closing below this level will confirm the EMA breakdown as valid, activating downward targets of $23.58 and $20.82🎯. If it can reclaim and stabilize above $28.85, a rebound towards the 200-day EMA at $32.75 is expected📈.
Independent technical analysis from TradingView points out that the ascending channel has been broken, with selling volume expanding to confirm structural damage🔨. Fibonacci retracement levels indicate the next dense support zone is between $17.14 and $23.30; if $23.58 is lost, it may open up deeper retracement space⚠️.
Conclusion📌
HYPEUSDT has entered a high volatility contraction zone, with three forces fiercely competing: the technical breakdown of key moving averages, the leveraged positions of whales approaching the liquidation price, and the strategic bottom-fishing by the project treasury🤝. The 50-day EMA has been lost, and momentum indicators clearly skew bearish, with bulls losing the initiative⏳. The next 48 hours—especially the relationship between the daily closing price and $28.85, as well as the defense of the $26.15 liquidation wall—will likely determine the subsequent trend of February🔮.
