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🧨U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls “Shock” the Market! Is a rate cut in July hanging in the balance?
🔥Major Non-Farm Payrolls “Good Start”! 130,000 jobs added in January, the highest since April 2025, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%. The data far exceeded expectations, triggering market turbulence! Traders quickly priced in a July rate cut, gold prices plummeted by $40, U.S. Treasury bonds fell, and non-U.S. currencies collectively dropped.
‼️But is the truth really that optimistic? The suspense is heightened! Last year's employment data was significantly revised down by 862,000, with an average increase of only 15,000 in 2025, which can be described as “bleak.” The strong rebound in January may only be a recovery from a low base.
❓Even more astonishing is the simultaneous increase in wages and hours worked, a rebound in manufacturing, and the resilience of consumer spending, raising hopes for an “soft landing” of the economy. But with Waller's appointment imminent, will the Federal Reserve “loosen” monetary policy? Is a July rate cut a certainty or a variable? Tonight's data is just the prelude to the storm?


