🌙Woke up and checked the news, this rate cut in June is quite interesting.
101 economists, 60 betting on a 25bp cut before the end of June📉, interest rates heading straight to 3.25%-3.5%. It's not a "maybe"; it's "already more than half". In simpler terms: action in the first half of the year is basically a consensus.
This is not a crisis-style rate cut, it's preventive. 25 basis points slowly ground down, not the kind that shocks with 50 basis points. Powell's game is quite steady♟️.
Inflation isn't completely dead, but employment has already started to loosen. Another rate hike? No need, just providing a way out for the market.
⚠️But don't forget—41 people haven't nodded yet. These folks are waiting for next week's PCE and non-farm data. Hard data means postponing rate cuts; soft data means a definite June cut.
The current issue is no longer whether to cut or not, but that the market's expectations are too high🔥. 95% of the pricing hasn't grown from "certainty"; it's been squeezed out of "fear of missing out".
When the shoe finally drops, will you rush in to catch the rebound, or sell your chips to those rushing in?
I stand with the latter.
Preventive rate cuts have a fate—peak when they land📈➡️📉. Unless next week's data crashes badly, but if it crashes that way, 25bp isn't even close to enough.
To get ahead, you need to run when expectations are just forming, not when everyone is holding their number cards waiting for you to get on the bus.
So my strategy has never been complicated: on the day the good news is fully out, I don't buy.
When they all rush in, I'm responsible for counting the money🧾. #何时抄底？ #BTC走势分析 #Bitcoin谷歌搜索量暴升
