Since last August, I’ve been saying one thing clearly:
If Bitcoin loses the $108,000 major structure level, we enter a deeper bearish cycle — and recovery won’t be easy.
I’m not a guru. I don’t predict the future.
But I study cycles. I study Halvings. I study mining economics, leverage, and market psychology.
And above all — I study Bitcoin cycles.
🔁 Bitcoin Moves in Halving Cycles (Every 4 Years)
Each cycle historically follows this structure:
• Peak forms after Halving
• Major correction follows
• Bottom comes roughly 12 months after the top
• New accumulation phase begins
What’s interesting?
Every cycle is smaller than the previous one.
Why? Because Bitcoin is:
📉 Inflationary + Logarithmic
Let me simplify:
🔹 Inflationary → As a scarce asset like gold, BTC tends to rise over time with global money expansion.
🔹 Logarithmic → Each cycle grows at a slower percentage rate than the previous one.
As market cap increases, it takes exponentially more capital to push price higher.
Early cycles pumped aggressively because mining rewards were drastically reduced.
Now, Halving reduces fewer BTC in absolute terms — meaning the supply shock impact is weaker.
That’s why cycles are getting smaller.
📊 What Could Happen in This Cycle?
Previous corrections:
• Cycle 1 → -85%
• Cycle 2 → -80%
• Cycle 3 → -75%
So what about now?
A 70% correction from the peak is possible based on historical structure.
We already saw a 50% drop to $60K.
If history rhymes, a deeper move toward $30K–$40K is not impossible.
Time-wise?
Each major correction lasted around 12 months.
If this cycle mirrors the past, maximum fear could appear around late 2026.
That’s usually when people say: “Bitcoin is dead.”
🎯 Strategy Thinking (Not Financial Advice)
Nobody knows the exact bottom.
But smart positioning is about probabilities.
• Accumulate gradually near strong zones
• Keep capital reserved for deeper discounts
• Average entries strategically
If someone averages around $50K during 2026
And the next logarithmic peak reaches ~$150K
That’s potentially a 3x move in the next cycle.
Not guaranteed. Not risk-free.
High reward = High risk.
This is not capital protection. This is cycle investing.
⚡ Short-Term Opportunity?
While waiting for deeper zones, traders can still:
• Trade volatility
• Capture 5–10% momentum swings
• Play relief rallies
Cycle investing + short-term trading can coexist.
Markets move in cycles.
Emotion repeats.
Fear creates opportunity.
The real question is not “Will BTC crash?”
The question is — will you be prepared when it does?
👇 Follow for more macro + cycle breakdowns.
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