$AVAX broke below the EMA20 on the 4-hour chart and has continued to decline, with deep sell orders accumulating. It is currently in a downward continuation pattern, with no clear signs of a bottoming signal.
🎯 Direction: No position
Market Analysis: The price has broken below all short-term moving averages (EMA20: 8.856), and the RSI (36.44) is not oversold but continues to decline. The key points are the deep imbalance (-1.40%) and the buy/sell ratio (0.46), indicating that selling pressure dominates and buying is insufficient to support the price.
Core Logic: The open interest is stable, but the funding rate is negative, combined with the price decline, this is not a typical short squeeze, but more like long positions being passively liquidated or short positions actively increased. The 4-hour candlestick chart shows that each rebound's high point is decreasing, and the latest candlestick's buy/sell ratio is only 0.46, indicating that the decline is accompanied by active selling.
The order book shows that sell orders (Asks) in the 8.573-8.592 range are significantly thicker than buy orders (Bids), forming a clear supply wall. Although there are buy orders accumulating around 8.55-8.57, their volume is not enough to reverse the trend, resembling a liquidity area for weak rebounds.
Overall Judgment: Currently lacking the structure required for bullish positions, which includes "key support confirmation + buy absorption," and also lacking the necessary structure for bearish positions, which includes "high funding rates + OI decline" at the top. The best strategy is to maintain a no position and wait for the price to show a bottoming structure or to return above the EMA20 with significant improvement in a lower zone (such as the previous low area of 8.30-8.40).
Trade here 👇$AVAX
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