🚨$BTC — $8K Collapse? Let's Be Honest.📊
An $8K target from here means a drop of 85–90%.
Such a discount only occurred in the early stages of Bitcoin, before institutional involvement (2011–2015).
Since 2018, even during COVID and FTX panic, the maximum drop has only been around 70–77% — severe, but not extinction-level.
On-chain data also does not support the $8K thesis:
Supply from long-term holders is near cycle highs → no mass capitulation
Realized price & average cost sitting far above $8K
To reach $8K would require forced liquidation from ETFs, institutions, miners, and businesses — all at once
That’s not impossible… but structurally it can’t happen without a true systemic crisis.
Even MicroStrategy's stress test comments are not a prediction — just a balance sheet model. Their debt can still be managed well above $8K.
Fear is very high right now.
But structurally? This looks more like cyclical stress — not an early-stage collapse.
Panic creates extremes.
Data creates clarity.
