🚨$BTC — $8K Collapse? Let’s Be Real.📊
An $8K target from here means an 85–90% crash.
That kind of drawdown only happened in Bitcoin’s early, pre-institutional era (2011–2015).
Since 2018, even during COVID and FTX panic, max drawdowns were around 70–77% — brutal, but not extinction-level.
On-chain data also doesn’t support an $8K thesis:
Long-term holder supply is near cycle highs → no mass capitulation
Realized price & average cost bases sit far above $8K
Hitting $8K would require forced selling from ETFs, institutions, miners, and corporates — all at once
That’s not impossible… but structurally unlikely without a true systemic crisis.
Even MicroStrategy’s stress-test comments weren’t a forecast — just balance sheet modeling. Their debt remains manageable well above $8K.
Fear is loud right now.
But structurally? This looks more like cycle stress — not early-era collapse.
Panic creates extremes.
Data creates clarity.
#BTC #BTCMiningDifficultyDrop #USTechFundFlows #RiskAssetsMarketShock #WhenWillBTCRebound