Hanoi, February 11, 2026 – The global financial markets are turning their attention to the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for January 2026, which is expected to be released tonight (Vietnam time). With signs indicating that the data could be very disappointing, the White House has proactively lowered expectations, while Bitcoin and other risk assets are preparing for another "heart-stopping moment." This report not only affects the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) but could also cause significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Overview of Employment Data

NFP report for January 2026, delayed due to part of the U.S. government shutdown, will be released by the U.S. Department of Labor at 13:30 GMT (around 20:30 Vietnam time). According to estimates from economists, new job creation is expected to increase by about 70,000 – 75,000, higher than the 50,000 level in December 2025 but still at a historically low level. However, some forecasts from organizations like Goldman Sachs suggest the number may only reach 45,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%.

In particular, this report will include annual benchmark adjustments, which may confirm that employment data for 2025 has been inflated, with estimates reduced by about 911,000 jobs compared to previous reports. If the adjustment number exceeds 1 million, this could reinforce the view of a slowing U.S. economy, leading to expectations of a stronger Fed rate cut.

The White House, under President Donald Trump, proactively mitigated by stating that an increase of 50,000 new jobs is "normal" in the context of high productivity and a shrinking workforce due to immigration policy and slow population growth. Trump's top economic advisors emphasized that this data is affected by seasonal factors and trade policy, rather than reflecting the actual economic health.

Market Sentiment and Impact on Bitcoin

Weak macroeconomic data could drive risk assets like Bitcoin, as they are often seen as hedges against inflation or recession. However, in the short term, Bitcoin is under strong pressure. BTC price has dropped below 67,000 USD in recent trading, marking a decline of over 50% from the peak of 126,000 USD at the end of 2025.
The Fear & Greed Index of the crypto market has plunged to a level of 9-14, reflecting an "extreme fear" state – the lowest since 2022.

The crypto community is in a "wait and watch" mode, with many miners entering a "capitulation" phase due to reversed production costs. BTC is currently trading below the estimated average mining cost of about 74,600 USD, leading to selling pressure from mining companies. Goldman Sachs has reduced its Bitcoin ETF holdings by nearly 40% in Q4 2025, indicating low participation from retail investors and narrowing price spreads leading to slowed ETF capital flows.

However, not everything is negative. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for three consecutive days, with 167 million USD yesterday, indicating that large institutions are still accumulating at low prices. Additionally, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has changed his stance, publicly acknowledging the future potential of crypto assets, marking a shift from traditional banks.

From posts on X (formerly Twitter), the community is actively discussing the impact of NFP on BTC, with many warning of high volatility and advising against leverage. If the NFP data is weaker than expected, BTC may rise due to expectations of Fed easing; conversely, strong data could pull prices further down.

Trading Guidelines in a Volatile Context

In the current situation, a defensive strategy is prioritized. Investors should reduce more than 50% of short-term positions before the data is released, only retaining core positions. Avoid chasing prices right after the report; if there is a sharp decline, pay attention to technical support levels like the 5% Fibonacci retracement level below, but wait for a long lower wick on the 15-minute chart before entering a trade.

Risk warning: The market may face a "double shock" if Nasdaq declines sharply due to recession fears, dragging BTC down as well. In this phase, not incurring losses has been a significant advantage compared to 90% of other investors. Cash remains "king" in the context of instability.

The NFP report tonight could be a crucial catalyst for the market, but long-term factors such as Fed policy, geopolitical issues, and the Bitcoin halving cycle will decide the trend. Investors need to monitor closely and act based on actual data rather than sentiment.
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