$BTC is testing a key support zone after breaking below the EMA20. The depth chart shows heavy selling pressure, but the negative funding rate suggests that bearish sentiment is overheated.
🎯 Direction: No Position
Market Analysis: The price has dropped below the 4H EMA20 (68842) and is testing the critical support zone of 67000-66500. The 4H RSI (37.23) is entering the oversold territory but is not an absolute low point.
Core Logic: The core contradiction lies in the deep imbalance (-96.98%) and the divergence in the funding rate (-0.0014%). The sell wall (8.224 BTC at 67022.8) is significantly thicker than the buy orders, indicating immediate selling pressure. However, the negative funding rate and stable open interest suggest that the decline is driven by long positions closing rather than active short positions being established, reducing the risk of a short squeeze.
Key Observation: The price needs to stabilize above 66500 (previous low/Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level) and show buy absorption signals (such as a 4H Pin Bar + increased volume). If it breaks below 66500 with volume, the trend will turn bearish, targeting below 65000. The current ATR (1314) is large, indicating high market volatility, and the risk of blindly catching the bottom is extremely high.
Strategy: Wait. 1) If a clear 4H bullish engulfing or Pin Bar appears in the 66500-67000 range, and deep buy orders increase, consider entering a small long position on the left side. 2) If it breaks below 66500 with volume, look to short in line with the trend. The current win rate is insufficient, so remaining flat is the best choice.
Trade here 👇$BTC
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