UBS: Gold to Hit $5,900/oz by Year-End 2026 on Fed Easing and Central Bank Demand
UBS recently raised its gold price target, forecasting that the precious metal will reach $5,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. Analysts at the bank anticipate gold could climb even higher, hitting $6,200 per ounce by March 2026 and maintaining that level through September, before a modest year-end decline following the U.S. midterm elections.
Key Drivers of the UBS Forecast
Federal Reserve Easing: Expected declines in real U.S. interest rates are predicted to lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, thereby boosting demand for gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Sovereign & Central Bank Buying: Robust demand from central banks and sovereign wealth funds is expected to continue, with purchases estimated to reach 900 metric tonnes in 2026.
Geopolitical and Fiscal Uncertainty: Rising geopolitical tensions, U.S. fiscal deficits, and policy concerns related to the 2026 midterm elections are reinforcing gold's status as a premier safe-haven asset.
Market Context and Institutional Comparisons
As of February 11, 2026, spot gold is trading near $5,128.60, having already surged approximately 18% since the start of the year. While UBS is among the most bullish, other major institutions have also revised their 2026 year-end targets:
J.P. Morgan: Forecasts prices to average $5,055/oz by Q4 2026, with potential to reach $6,300.
Goldman Sachs: Raised its target to $5,400/oz.
Bank of America: Projects an average of $4,400/oz with a peak of $5,000.
Wells Fargo: Anticipates a range between $6,100 and $6,300.
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