1. Current situation: 'Double test' market under bearish trend
Currently, Bitcoin has entered the 'double test' phase as expected. From the daily chart, yesterday's market closed with a spinning top candlestick with a long shadow, and today's market continues to decline. As previously analyzed, the current major trend is still under the dominance of bears, and both the weekly and daily levels indicate that shorting on rallies is the mainstream strategy.
In terms of specific entry points, the range of $72,000 to $73,000 is the ideal area for short positions. As for long positions, although a very short-term rebound can be attempted if quickly recovered near $67,000 to $68,000, this is considered a typical counter-trend operation with extremely high risk. Currently, the one-hour level has broken below the key trendline, suggesting the possibility of further downward exploration.
Two, Macro paradox: Why is the Dow reaching new highs more dangerous for Bitcoin?
The three major U.S. stock indexes have recently shown significant divergence, which poses a potential threat to Bitcoin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently reached an all-time high, while the NASDAQ, dominated by technology stocks, has shown clear signs of peaking.
Capital flow signal: The NASDAQ covers a large number of technology stocks. The current daily structure shows that it has broken below the upward trend line and is experiencing another decline after consolidation, reminiscent of the prelude to the historical Internet bubble burst. The market has developed a 'fear of heights' mentality regarding the virtual economy and the tech stock wave driven by AI, with Wall Street funds withdrawing from the NASDAQ and moving towards more defensive traditional industrial sectors (Dow Jones).
Liquidity of risk assets: Bitcoin is essentially viewed as a 'leveraged tech stock.' If the NASDAQ forms a true top, then the bottom for Bitcoin will definitely not stop at $60,000. The prosperity of the Dow Jones obscures the decline of tech assets, and the contagion effect of this capital outflow serves as a long-term risk warning for Bitcoin.
Three, Safe-haven assets: The suppression of precious metals and geopolitical risks
Gold and silver currently maintain a bullish structure, reflecting strong demand for safe havens in the market. Although gold prices have not fully broken through the left-side highs on a small scale (one hour) and are still in an adjustment suppression period, this is mainly influenced by geopolitical games (such as U.S.-Iran negotiation progress).
For investors, this is not the time to blindly chase precious metals. Although silver has stronger leverage elasticity when rising, there is still a lot of market bubble. An ideal entry point should be in the bottom support area, for example, when silver returns to the $40-$50 range. The strong fluctuations in precious metals indirectly confirm the uncertainty of the macro environment, which creates ongoing valuation pressure on the highly risk-tolerant crypto market.
Four, Market breakdown: The bait and support level of short-term rebounds
Although the long-term outlook is bearish, the difficulty of Bitcoin experiencing another sharp decline in the short term is increasing. Due to a recent large number of short positions closing and initial clearing of institutional leverage, the market is likely to enter a boring and prolonged consolidation period.
Illusion of a rebound: The market may rebound to $72,000 or even $76,000, creating an illusion of 'rebound return' to numb retail investors, followed by a deeper decline.
Short-term gap and support: On the 15-minute level, the previous rapid rise left a gap near $63,000. If the price fills this gap and stabilizes, combined with small-scale bullish signals, one can enter ultra-short-term long positions.
Capital market variables: Recently, Coinbase's premium rate has turned positive, and ETFs have seen net inflows for two consecutive days, indicating that some Wall Street funds find the current price attractive. Tonight's non-farm payroll data release will reflect the cooling of the labor market. If interest rate cut expectations rise sharply, it could produce short-term benefits for Bitcoin's evening market.
Five, Core trading strategy: Preventing short-selling risks
Through market data, it can be seen that CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) is decreasing while OI (Open Interest) is increasing, indicating that many retail investors are starting to chase shorts after the market breaks through key levels. When funding rates turn negative and short positions become overly crowded, any positive news could trigger a second rally or a 'short squeeze' market.
Specific investment advice is as follows:
Refusal to short: Chasing shorts at the current position is likely to get trapped by short-term rebounds. Robust short positions should wait for a rebound to the downward trend line or near $72,000 before acting.
Key buying area: $64,000 to $65,000 is a dense buying zone and a potential liquidation area. If the price drops below $65,000 and quickly rebounds, it indicates that long liquidity has been cleared, and the probability of subsequent upward movement is high.
Dollar-cost averaging strategy: If the price retests the $60,000 mark, it can be considered a dollar-cost averaging zone. Backed by the $60,000 support level, set the stop-loss far below $59,800, and make small spot dollar-cost averaging or ultra-short-term scalp trades.
Summary: The market is volatile; stay clear-headed.
Bitcoin's current trend is a microcosm of macro fund games. Against the backdrop of an unclear NASDAQ top structure and rising demand for safe-haven assets, the dangers for Bitcoin are far from over. Investors should be wary of the rebound illusion created by the market, adhere to the long-term thinking of shorting on highs, and maintain sensitivity to short-term variables at key support levels, avoiding losing direction in the consolidation.
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