On February 11, a spectacle occurred on Polymarket: the same group of gamblers pushed the probability of "Bitcoin falling to $55,000 this year" up to 78%, while simultaneously buying the probability of "rising back to $80,000" at 72%. It’s like your friend just told you, "This project is going to fail," then turned around and asked, "Which coin should I go all in on?"—the market is not only mentally fractured but does so with a sense of justification.
1. Let's get to the hard facts: How magical is today’s data?
Don't rush to analyze, take a look at this silent screenshot:
· Bitcoin has fallen to $55,000 this year → Probability 78%
· Drop to $50,000 → Probability 63%
· Rise back to $80,000 → Probability 72%
· Rise to $90,000 → Probability 55%
Did you understand?
78% of people think it will crash to 55,000, 72% think it can return to 80,000.
This is not a prediction, this is a scene of split personality.
When you ask these people, 'So will it go up or down?' They will look at you with a caring expression for the mentally challenged: 'I want it all.'
Second, why did the market go crazy? Let me break it down for you.
Don't blame the gambling spirit of Polymarket's users for splitting personalities; they are just honestly reflecting the current state of the market—it's not that everyone is stupid, it's just that this trend is really terrible.
First, the air force has real weapons.
On-chain data doesn't lie: in the past 8 days, wallets holding 10-10,000 coins have dumped 81,068 bitcoins in one go.
What does 80,000 coins mean? At the current price of 70,000, that's $5.6 billion in goods, cleared in 8 days. This is not a retreat; this is moving house.
At the same time, the proportion of retail investors holding positions has reached a 20-month high.
Translated into human language: big players are running away, and retail investors are bottom fishing.
Second, the bulls are not just talking nonsense.
In the same week, another group of whales bought 40,000 BTC at the 60,000 mark. An address that had been dormant for 7 months woke up and realized it had missed the entire downward cycle, hurriedly bought 482 'to get on board'.
So the truth is: the big players themselves haven't reached an agreement. Some are running away, some are bottom fishing, and both sides think the other is an idiot.
Third, the real tragedy lies in the liquidation data.
From February 5 to 6, 430,000 people were liquidated, $2.069 billion vanished into thin air.
What does 430,000 people mean? The entire country of Iceland has only 370,000 people. That night, we wiped out the population of a Nordic country.
What's more heartbreaking is: this money was not taken away by the 'big player', it was cut off by the stop-loss orders you set. You set a stop loss at 70,000, it triggered when it dropped to 69,000, and then it rebounded—classic script, tried and true.
Three, the divergence is so huge, who is right?
First, let's talk about the bears: they have their reasons.
Bitcoin has fallen 52% from its peak of 126,000. ETF funds have seen net outflows for three consecutive months, stablecoin market capitalization is in negative growth, and derivative funding rates are still floating in negative territory.
What's more deadly is: there are no new people anymore.
Glassnode's data speaks plainly: retail investors are exiting, not in panic selling, but because they are too lazy to watch. This kind of 'calm exit' is scarier than a stampede—at least a stampede indicates that someone still cares.
What about the bulls? It's not just pure gambling.
Bernstein's analysts are calling out: year-end target of $150,000, this is just a 'confidence crisis'.
Their logic is: ETF outflows are only 7%, yet the price has crashed by 50%—overreacted. Moreover, whales have started buying, the bottom might be nearby.
Sounds reasonable, right?
So the question arises: both sides have their reasons, who do you believe?
My answer is: don't fully believe either side, but you have to listen to both.
Four, my bold statement: Polymarket is not a god, it is a funhouse mirror of the market.
I have an observation, which may not be right:
The 78% 'drop to 55,000' on Polymarket, and the 72% 'rise back to 80,000', are actually not the same group of people.
The former is an old investor who is scared of being trapped, while the latter is a new investor who is anxious about missing the boat.
Old investors have experienced a drop from 120,000 to 60,000, and their mental shadow area is larger than the price of the coin. New investors just entered the market, their minds full of 'bottom fishing', 'rebound', 'this wave is stable'.
Polymarket is not a prediction machine; it is a thermometer of emotions. It does not tell you what will happen in the future, but tells you how divided everyone is right now.
So don't ask 'is the market bullish or bearish'—the market itself doesn't even know.
Five, what should I do? (sincere advice version)
First, don't marry Polymarket.
Today it says 78% will crash, tomorrow it might change to 78% will rise. The prediction market is a weather vane, not a decree.
Second, focus on two numbers: 60,000 and 80,000.
60,000 is the physical limit of market confidence; if broken, it's truly gone; 80,000 is the touchstone for rebounds; if it can't go up, don't shout 'bull market' again.
Third, being alive is more important than making money.
On the night when 430,000 people were liquidated, some lost their entire fortunes. You don't need to catch every rebound; you just need to still be at the table when the next real trend arrives.
Moon's thought is:
The current Bitcoin market is like a drunken man who just broke up:
· He said he doesn't care anymore (funding rate negative)
· But he's still secretly checking his ex’s social media (whales are cursing while buying)
· Sent motivational quotes at 3 AM and then deleted them (rebounded for a day and then crashed back down)
Don't ask him if he wants to get back together; he himself doesn't know.
What we can do is to borrow less, leverage less, and listen to fewer stories.
And, look at Polymarket less—looking too much can really cause split personalities.
