February 11, 2026


1. Market Snapshot: Panic Spreads, All Lines in the Red

On February 11, the cryptocurrency market suffered another heavy blow. According to CoinMarketCap data, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization fell to $2.31 trillion, shrinking by 2.86% within 24 hours. Bitcoin dropped below $68,000 to $67,539 (-3.17%), Ethereum reported $2,010 (-6.18%), Solana fell to $83 (-3.7%), XRP dropped below $1.40 (with a cumulative decline of 14% in February), and Dogecoin struggled around $0.09. The CoinDesk 20 index fell by 3.7%, with none of the five major component currencies spared.


The direct trigger for today's crash was the breakdown of stablecoin legislation negotiations at the White House. A highly anticipated high-level meeting failed to make any substantive progress on the cryptocurrency bill, and the stagnation at the regulatory level in Washington severely undermined investor confidence. Additionally, abnormal activity was recently observed in the 'Genesis Wallet' associated with Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto, which holds approximately 1,096,000 BTC (worth about $76.3 billion), further exacerbating market panic.


II. From 126,000 to 67,000: A Six-Week Crash Record

Looking back at this round of plummet, the timeline is shocking. Bitcoin has continuously declined from its historical high of $126,273 in October last year, having been around $91,000 at the beginning of January, dropping below $80,000 by the end of January, and after rebounding to $78,000 on February 1, it collapsed rapidly. On February 5, the third consecutive trading day of plummeting, it once touched $70,000; February 6 saw the infamous "Black Thursday," where BTC flashed down to a low of $59,800, with over $2.59 billion in positions liquidated across the network within 24 hours, affecting 570,000 traders. Although there was a subsequent V-shaped rebound to $71,000, the momentum quickly exhausted, and prices continued to slide down to today’s range of $67,500.


In just 22 days, the crypto market evaporated over $900 billion. CryptoQuant warns that BTC has fallen below the 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, with performance even weaker than during the bear market phase at the beginning of 2022.


III. Five Major Crash Drivers

Federal Reserve Policy Shift: Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, and the market expects hawkish policies to continue, with the DXY dollar index breaking above 97.5, putting pressure on risk assets.


ETFs Continue to Bleed: CoinShares data shows that digital asset investment products recorded a net outflow of $1.7 billion for two consecutive weeks, with a cumulative outflow of $1 billion year-to-date. The U.S. spot ETF, which heavily bought 46,000 BTC in 2025, has turned to net selling in 2026.


Stablecoin Capital Flight: Investing.com’s in-depth analysis indicates that from last December to this February, the market value of stablecoins shrank by nearly $14 billion, with a peak weekly outflow of $7 billion. This means the funds are not rotating within the crypto ecosystem, but are completely exiting the market.


Arbitrage Trading Collapse: The "basis trade" (buying spot ETFs + shorting futures) that hedge funds were once keen on has seen its annualized return plummet from a peak of 17% in 2024 to less than 5%, making the math no longer viable, prompting institutions to begin large-scale liquidations.


Tech Stocks and Precious Metals Collapse Together: Microsoft’s earnings report fell short of expectations, triggering a tech stock crash, with silver plummeting 30% in a single day, the largest drop since 1980, as traditional safe-haven assets and risk assets collapsed simultaneously, leading to a complete liquidity drought.


IV. The Darkest Hour for Altcoins

If Bitcoin is "severely injured," then altcoins are "bleeding profusely." Ethereum has fallen from $3,370 at the beginning of the year to $2,010, a decline of over 40%; Trend Research's whale leverage positions have continued to be liquidated, having sold over 112,000 ETH, resulting in a paper loss of $862 million. Solana has dropped from its historical high of $295 to $83, with an annual decline of 58%, and unstaked volume skyrocketing by 150%. XRP has fallen for six consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of 25% this year. Dogecoin has dropped to $0.09, and analysts warn it could further probe down to a five-year low of $0.05.


Kaiko's research indicates that the spot trading volume on major exchanges has dropped by about 30% since the end of 2025, with retail participation continuously shrinking, leading to extremely thin market liquidity, where any selling pressure could be amplified. The Fear and Greed Index remains at an extreme fear level of 11, the lowest since June 2022.


V. A Glimmer of Light in the Darkness

Despite the market being bleak, there are still some positive signals worth noting. The Ethereum Foundation officially launched the first developer conference for L1-zkEVM today, advancing the historic architecture upgrade of zero-knowledge proof integration into Layer 1. Harvard University's Bitcoin ETF holdings have exceeded its parent company Google’s shares, marking the deepening of crypto allocation by top academic institutions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act this spring, which, if enacted, would provide a crucial regulatory framework for the crypto market. Bernstein Securities reiterated its target price of $150,000 for BTC by the end of the year, while Standard Chartered maintains its 2026 forecasts of $7,500 for ETH and $250 for SOL.


VI. Market Outlook: Is the Bear Market Deepening or Bottoming Out?

The market is at a crossroads of intense long-short battles. Bears believe that the BTC 200-week moving average (around $68,000) has been touched, and if it falls below, the $60,000 to $65,000 range will face another test, with extreme cases possibly dropping to $50,000. Kaiko analysts point out that historically, a correction of over 50% often requires months to bottom out, accompanied by multiple failed rebounds.


Bulls hope for the resilience of institutional long-term allocation, the advancement of regulatory clarity, and the stability of on-chain fundamentals. BTC often prepares for a mid-term bottom under extreme fear index conditions. The U.S. Bitcoin ETF has recorded a continuous net inflow of $616 million over the past two days, indicating that "smart money" is buying on dips.


Regardless, the current market is experiencing intense volatility, with high leverage risks. Investors must strictly control their positions and avoid chasing highs and cutting losses. This deep adjustment driven by macro tightening, liquidity exhaustion, and leverage clearing may indeed be the necessary path for the market to transition from speculative frenzy to maturity.