#比特币 The change of the Federal Reserve Chair has caused a stir, but Bernstein says: this is the “weakest” bear market in history!
As Kevin Warsh is nominated by Trump as the new Federal Reserve Chair, market concerns about liquidity have reached a peak. The fluctuations of Bitcoin below $70,000 are largely a psychological game regarding the expectations of balance sheet reduction during the 'Warsh era.'
The biggest difference between Warsh and Powell lies in his commitment to monetary discipline. As a 'hawk' who insisted on vigilance against inflation during the 2008 financial crisis, his ascendance may signify the complete end of the era of cheap money. However, Bernstein's analysts have proposed a contrary view at this time: the current adjustment is the 'weakest bear market' in the history of digital assets. The reasoning is quite simple: past bear markets have always been accompanied by systemic collapses like Three Arrows Capital, FTX, or Luna, but now, we see institutions (like MicroStrategy) continuously increasing their holdings, the SEC gradually retreating, and even the U.S. government establishing Bitcoin reserves. This divergence of 'extremely strong fundamentals but weak macro sentiment' often indicates that the market is undergoing a deep restructuring of chips.
Although Walsh is hawkish, his recognition of Bitcoin as a 'policy enforcer' has actually established Bitcoin's position as 'digital gold' within the mainstream financial system. If he can successfully suppress inflation and stabilize the dollar, the attributes of Bitcoin as a premium scarce asset will become even more pronounced. The target price of $150,000 given by analysts is not unfounded, but is based on this logic shift from speculation to capital.
Do you think Walsh's policies are 'bearish' or a 'sword of Damocles' for Bitcoin? Do you lean towards believing Bernstein's bull market forecast, or are you worried about a macro winter? A warm welcome 👏 to a big debate in the comments section! 🎤
