🚨 U.S. government shutdown now projected around February 14 — and markets might not handle it well.
Prediction markets are pricing roughly a ~74% chance of the next shutdown by Valentine’s Day as funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) lapses if Congress can’t agree.
If you think it’s just “politics,” think again — uncertainty is the market’s enemy:
• Shutdown risk has been climbing as negotiators stall over DHS funding tied to immigration reforms.
• Past shutdowns have delayed key economic data and rattled confidence, adding pressure to stocks, crypto and bonds.
And this isn’t just about office doors closing:
→ Federal paychecks can be delayed or paused.
→ Government contracts and approvals slow or stop.
→ Reports like jobs data get pushed back.
→ Market anxiety spikes.
In previous shutdown-linked drawdowns, risk assets have seen sell-offs and heightened volatility as traders price in uncertainty. (Crypto and equities often feel it first.)
Right now many traders think it won’t matter, but complacency has a history of breaking before the headline lands.
I’ve been tracking markets for a decade and called major turning points — including the Bitcoin October all-time high.
Follow and turn on alerts if you want the real heads-up before the news hits.
$POWER $PIPPIN $RIVER
