1. Current situation: Where has all the money gone?
Let's first look at a set of hot data that just came out these past few days:
In January 2026, the United States saw the largest capital outflow from Bitcoin ETFs in history, with a net outflow totaling $1.61 billion.
At the same time, the once booming tech giants of Nasdaq (such as Nvidia and Microsoft) are also facing a "mass exodus of funds." Bank of America's top analyst Hartnett recently dropped a bombshell: "Go long Main Street, go short Wall Street." In simple terms: large institutions believe that the bubbles in tech stocks and the cryptocurrency market are too big, and they want to pull their money out of these "virtual bubbles" and invest in the real economy.
Why does the 'runaway' of tech funds shake the crypto world?
Liquidity contraction: These large funds are the biggest 'nurturers' in the crypto world. When they withdraw funds, the market has no money to take over.
Hedge sentiment: When tech giant NVIDIA starts to fall, Bitcoin, which is riskier, is seen as a 'hot potato' in the eyes of institutions.
Capital Expenditure Trap: By 2026, the investment of large tech companies in AI has reached 670 billion USD, accounting for 96% of their cash reserves. This means they have no money left to buy back stocks or speculate on cryptocurrencies.
II. Case Review: From 'Nasdaq Savior' to 'Crypto Killer'
Think back to the first half of 2025 when Bitcoin surged to $100,000, driven by tech funds from BlackRock and Fidelity buying aggressively.
Case Analysis:
A well-known US tech ETF (which will remain unnamed) once allocated 5% of its assets to MicroStrategy and Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2025. At that time, the situation was: tech stocks rose, it increased its position; Bitcoin rose, its net value doubled. This 'left foot stepping on the right foot' rising pattern made everyone believe that the bull market would never end.
But by January 2026, as the Federal Reserve's policy shifted (Powell was set to retire, market expectations were unstable), the fund faced large-scale redemptions. To cope with redemption pressure, fund managers had to forcibly liquidate the most liquid assets—namely, Bitcoin.
This is a typical 'liquidity crunch'. When you see the market plunge for no reason, it's often not that the project side has run away, but that fund managers across the ocean are 'cutting losses' to cope with client withdrawals.
III. Three 'preservation advice' for crypto newbies
As an old hand who has experienced several rounds of bull and bear markets, I offer a few suggestions to those who are still confused. Don't listen to those trading teachers bragging; understanding the macro trend is the hard truth.
1. Abandon the 'four-year cycle theory' and embrace the 'institutional market'
We used to say that Bitcoin must surge after halving every four years, that's the 'retail market'. Now in 2026, it's the 'institutional market'.
Operational Advice: Don't just count the days waiting for the halving. What you should watch now is the daily flow data of the Nasdaq 100 index and ETFs. If tech funds are flowing out, even if Bitcoin's halving drops it to zero, it won't move up.
2. Distinguish between 'true value' and 'AI bubble'
Now there are projects everywhere in the square proudly labeled 'AI+Crypto'. You need to understand that when US tech funds contract, the first to die are those hot air coins riding the wave.
Operational Advice: Position towards major stocks like BNB, BTC, ETH. At this stage, preserving capital is more important than doubling it.
3. Watch the psychological threshold: $75,000 - $80,000
In early February 2026, Bitcoin fell below $80,000, briefly touching $75,000. This is the 'cost lifeline' for many institutional ETFs.
Operational Advice: If Bitcoin can stabilize within this range, it indicates that institutions are still holding on; if it falls below 70,000, then it will completely enter the 'winter period', at which point please decisively reduce your position, don't fantasize.
IV. Conclusion: Crisis or Opportunity?
The outflow of US tech funds has indeed made the start of 2026 feel a bit cold. But there's no need to panic. JPMorgan's report also mentioned that although there are short-term fluctuations, by the end of 2026, with clearer expectations of interest rate cuts, the market value of stablecoins could reach $1-2 trillion.
The essence of the market is: money flows from those who have no patience to those who do.
This 'net outflow' is actually a major washout, shaking off those highly leveraged speculators and bringing the market back to rationality. Your task now is not to go all in, but to save bullets and build positions in batches.
