Author of the news: Crypto Emergency
Investors on the Polymarket platform have begun to actively price in expectations for the Federal Reserve's decision at the March meeting. Data from the prediction market shows that participants are almost certain that the Fed will not change the interest rate.
The market sees an 83% probability of maintaining the rate
According to Polymarket:
83% — the rate will remain unchanged,
16% — a decrease of 25 b.p.,
1% — a decrease of 50 b.p. or more,
1% — the probability of an increase in the rate.
Thus, the market practically rules out sharp moves from the Fed.
Context: January FOMC meeting
In January, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC):
• kept the rate in the range of 3.50–3.75%,
• did this for the first time since July 2025,
• after three consecutive decreases of 25 b.p. at the end of 2025.
The decision was made by a majority vote — 10 against
2. Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller advocated for an additional decrease, citing a weakening labor market.
Powell's position: policy in a 'broad neutral range'
After the December rate reduction, Jerome Powell stated that monetary policy is in a broad neutral range. This means that the Fed aims to maintain a balance between:
• controlling inflation,
• supporting employment.
Low rates stimulate the labor market but increase inflation risks. High rates, on the contrary, cool the economy but may weaken employment.
What does this mean for the markets
Given current expectations:
• investors do not expect quick easing,
• volatility in the markets may persist,
• the cryptocurrency sector will closely monitor macro data that could change forecasts.