🧵 Global Macro Update: CPI, Liquidity & Crypto Positioning
1️⃣ CPI Is the Macro Trigger
U.S. CPI has cooled significantly from 2022 highs and is now hovering near the Fed’s target range.
Headline inflation ≈ moderating.
Core inflation = sticky but stabilizing.
Translation: The inflation shock cycle is largely behind us.
2️⃣ Why This Matters for Crypto
Crypto doesn’t trade on inflation alone.
It trades on liquidity expectations.
CPI ↓ → Fed tightening pauses → Rate cuts priced → Liquidity expectations ↑
And liquidity is the oxygen for BTC & ETH.
3️⃣ The Liquidity Cycle
2022:
High CPI → Aggressive hikes → Liquidity drain → BTC bear market.
2023–2025-Early 2026:
Disinflation trend → Slower tightening → Stability in yields → Risk appetite returns.
We are no longer in a liquidity contraction regime.
We are transitioning toward neutral → potentially expansionary.
That’s structurally bullish.
4️⃣ $BTC BTC Macro Positioning
BTC behaves like:
A high-beta liquidity asset in tightening cycles
A macro hedge during monetary expansion
With CPI cooling:
✔ Rate volatility declines
✔ Dollar strength moderates
✔ Financial conditions ease
That creates tailwinds for BTC.
5️⃣ $ETH ETH & Risk Layer
ETH is more sensitive to:
Risk appetite
Tech equity correlations
Capital rotation within crypto
If CPI continues moderating and cuts get priced in, ETH typically outperforms in mid-cycle liquidity expansions.
6️⃣ The Real Risk
The only macro threat here:
If CPI re-accelerates.
That would:
→ Push yields higher
→ Strengthen USD
→ Tighten liquidity again
Until that happens, macro backdrop remains constructive.
7️⃣ Big Picture
We’ve moved from:
Inflation Shock → Policy Panic → Liquidity Crunch
To:
Disinflation → Policy Patience → Liquidity Stabilization
Crypto thrives in stabilization turning to expansion.
Macro regime has shifted.
