The BTC price path is matching 100% with this warning post of mine. Don't worry, I will update you right away if there are any changes. Wish you all good luck.

🔥 BTC warning down to 64~65k - risks and opportunities

This time I analyze 100% purely technical. Eliminating all macro news.

BTC signals are gradually revealing

🔹 EMA200 weekly
• Currently around ~66–68k
• BTC is testing EMA200 from above
In history:
• Touching EMA200 rarely bounces immediately
• Often lightly → shakeout → closing the candle with a long wick

👉 The sweep to ~64–65k:
• Is a liquidity sweep below EMA200
• Cleans out the last longs

🔥 and then what?

Based on RSI showing us the scenario after the sweep
🔹 Weekly RSI
RSI(6) ~15 → extremely oversold (rare on the weekly frame)
• RSI(12) ~25 → historical multiple bottom formation area
🔹 Weekly MACD:
• Deep negative histogram
• But the downtrend is slowing down → signs of creating a local bottom

👉👉 This supports that after the sweep:

It won't crash further, but it's a technical bottom → strong rebound

🔥 based on weekly and 4h frame data I assess the rebound target is ~78k because:

Coincides with:
• EMA50 on the 4H frame
• Strong breakdown area before
• Mid-range of the downtrend
Is the area:
• Short cover
• Exit for weak holders
• Bull trap if there is no real force

👉 78k = trend test area, not an area to immediately start a bull run.
After this level, BTC and all alts will begin a new trend.

I will update when there are changes

This is personal opinion for you to have a perspective and avoid risks, this is not investment advice.

Wishing you success
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