📊 Chart Overview (4H)
Current Price: 603.29
24H High/Low: 635.38 / 597.61
Trend: Strong bearish
RSI(6): 18.82 (deeply oversold)
1️⃣ Trend & Structure
Clear downtrend: Lower highs + lower lows.
Price trading below MA(7), MA(25), and MA(99).
MA alignment is bearish:
MA(7) < MA(25) < MA(99)
MA(25) (~634) acting as dynamic resistance.
MA(99) (~754) confirms higher timeframe macro bearish pressure.
2️⃣ Momentum
RSI at 18.82 → extremely oversold.
However, oversold ≠ immediate reversal in strong downtrends.
Expect:
Either short-term bounce to resistance
Or continuation breakdown below 597–600 support
3️⃣ Key Levels
Resistance Zones
610–615 (minor intraday resistance)
620–635 (major 4H resistance / MA cluster)
Support Zones
597–600 (current support)
570 (major swing low)
560 (next major support)
🔥 Intraday Trading Plan
Because trend is bearish, the higher-probability setup is short on bounce.
🟥 Primary Setup: Short on Pullback (Trend Continuation)
🎯 Entry Zone:
610 – 618
(Wait for rejection candle on 15m or 1H)
🛑 Stop-Loss:
628 (Above 4H resistance & MA zone)
🎯 Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 595
TP2: 575
TP3: 562
Risk-Reward:
Approx 1:2 to 1:3 if managed properly.
✔ Move SL to breakeven after TP1 hits.
🟢 Counter-Trend Setup: Oversold Bounce (Higher Risk)
Only if price holds above 595 and prints bullish divergence on lower timeframe.
🎯 Entry:
600 – 603
🛑 Stop-Loss:
588
🎯 Take-Profit:
TP1: 615
TP2: 628
TP3: 635
⚠ This is against trend — reduce position size.
⚠ What Invalidates Bearish Bias?
4H close above 635
Strong bullish volume breakout
If that happens → bias shifts neutral/bullish short term.
📌 Trading Guidance
Do NOT chase breakdown at 600 support.
Wait for:
Pullback rejection (best setup)
OR confirmed breakdown + retest
RSI oversold can stay oversold in strong trends.
Use max 1–2% risk per trade.
📈 Probability Assessment
Bearish continuation: ~65%
Short-term bounce: ~35%
If you’d like, I can also:
Mark a scalp setup (5–15m precision entry)
Provide a futures leverage-adjusted risk model
Map liquidation zones for aggressive entries
#bnb #BNB_Market_Update #bnb一輩子 $BNB
