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🔥The surge of the Renminbi conceals major changes: Why is this round of appreciation unprecedented?
In 2026, the Renminbi continues to strengthen, but the underlying logic has completely overturned history! CITIC Securities points out that this round of appreciation does not rely on the weakness of the US dollar or the influx of foreign capital, but is driven by three deep forces: the skyrocketing "profit-making ability" of Chinese enterprises globally, a surge in demand for currency exchange; global funds shaking confidence in the US dollar and turning to Renminbi supported by physical assets; and the shift in Chinese policy from "external subsidies" to "external taxation" to support domestic demand.
Even more astonishing is that, even if the Federal Reserve changes leadership and the dollar rebounds, it is difficult to reverse the trend! When Kashkari takes office, it may push for "interest rate cuts + balance sheet reduction", but the underlying logic of Renminbi appreciation remains unchanged. Historical experience is invalid: weak Hong Kong stocks, outflow of foreign capital, and a strong dollar coexist in the appreciation, and the market is experiencing an "atypical storm".
Under appreciation, who will benefit? Sectors like aviation and paper-making, with "muscle memory" trends, may re-emerge; profit in import-dependent industries will increase; policy easing and relaxation of overseas expansion may ignite new opportunities for brokerages and insurance. Meanwhile, leading manufacturers accelerating overseas expansion have already avoided currency fluctuations, making profits more stable.
But the alarm has sounded: the appreciation of the yen in the past led to industrial hollowing and bubble bursts, which is a profound lesson. Can the Renminbi find a new path? The answer lies in this round of different appreciation logic.
