🚨 TRUMP’S 2026 MARKET PLAYBOOK — CRASH FIRST, PUMP LATER

Most people think 2026 = straight rally.

I think they’re early.

If this roadmap plays out, we get pain first — liquidity later.

Here’s the sequence I’m watching:

1⃣ THE CRACK

The U.S. economy isn’t as strong as headlines suggest:

Layoffs rising

Bankruptcies ticking up

Credit stress building

Housing demand rolling over

Sellers outnumbering buyers

That’s late-cycle behavior.

A correction in the next 2–3 months is very possible:

S&P 500: -10% to -15%

Nasdaq: -15% to -20%

Crypto: likely deeper drawdowns, maybe capitulation

Crypto doesn’t decouple in stress.
It exaggerates it.

2⃣ THE BLAME SHIFT

During the downturn, expect pressure on Jerome Powell.

Narrative writes itself:

“Rates stayed too tight.”

“Liquidity wasn’t provided.”

“The Fed reacted too slowly.”

Powell’s chair term ends May 2026.
That timing matters.

If markets are weak, he becomes the convenient scapegoat.

3⃣ THE PIVOT

If Kevin Warsh steps in as Fed Chair, easing becomes more likely.

Yield curve control.
Lower long-term yields.
Cheaper borrowing.

Cheaper borrowing = liquidity.
Liquidity = higher asset prices.

Layer on potential fiscal moves:

Tariff dividend checks

Tax cuts

Pro-crypto regulatory clarity

That’s fuel.

4⃣ THE ELECTION INCENTIVE

Midterms hit Q4 2026.

Markets rising + cash in voters’ pockets = powerful optics.

Once prices climb, people forget the pain.

The sequence could look like this:

Early 2026 → Correction + blame
Mid 2026 → Fed shift + easing
Late 2026 → Rally into elections

My Take

The next few months could be volatile.

If we get that correction, it’s not the end —
it’s the setup.

Markets don’t move in straight lines.
They reset, then reprice.

Plan for both phases.