$TRIA My bias here is Short, but I'm waiting for a retracement to sell into strength. This isn't about chasing the drop; it's about selling the relief rally.
HTF Narrative (4H/1D): The trend is decisively down. Price has sliced through every major EMA cluster and is riding the lower Bollinger Band. The Supertrend has been sell for days. However, the RSI(14) is deeply oversold at ~26 on the 1H. This is a coiled spring—not for a long, but for a dead cat bounce that will trap desperate bulls.
LTF Execution (15M/1H): The breakdown below 0.01430 (previous support & EMA cluster) was critical. That level is now my resistance. Price is currently in a compression zone between 0.01370 and 0.01400. The recent high-volume sell candle (483M) hints at capitulation. I'm watching for a low-volume bounce back into the supply zone.
Market Psychology: Retail is panicking out of longs and will FOMO into the first green candle, thinking it's a "bottom." Smart money will use that liquidity to reload shorts. The order book shows a massive bid wall at 0.013, which will likely be taken out if we break down.
Trade Idea: Sell The Rally
· Bias: Short
· Entry Zone: 0.01400 - 0.01425 (Failed retest of broken support/1H EMA(9))
· Stop Loss: 0.01455 (Above the recent consolidation high & 1H EMA(50))
· Take Profit 1: 0.01350 (Recent low)
· Take Profit 2: 0.01300 (Liquidity below bid wall)
· Risk/Reward: 1:3.5+
· Invalidation: A 1H close above 0.01455 suggests a stronger corrective bounce is underway. Thesis broken.
The strength? Selling into a technically oversold bounce with a clear HTF downtrend and a recent breakdown of key structure. We're not predicting the bottom; we're trading the failed rebound. 📉💣
