Scenario $8,000 for Bitcoin: Low probability but cannot be ignored
The price level of $8,000 for $BTC is a theoretically existing scenario, although the probability of it occurring is currently assessed to be very low.
Such a deep drop would require conditions far beyond those of a typical bear market. This scenario could only form in the context of severe systemic stress, such as frozen liquidity, a sharp decline in confidence in ETFs, or a widespread forced sell-off by large institutions.
Compared to previous cycles, the current market structure has a higher level of resilience, with better infrastructure and clearer institutional participation. However, the market is also becoming more tightly linked to global macroeconomic factors, making systemic shocks potentially spread more quickly if they occur.
Extreme scenarios do not need to be expected to be considered. In risk management, planning for scenarios at the "tail end of the distribution" is just as important as analyzing the base case scenario. The figure of $8,000 should be viewed in that context: a tail risk, not a central scenario.
Despite the low probability, extreme events still affect market behavior. Just discussing them can impact positioning and sentiment, as the market often reacts to potential risks before they actually occur.
