Toncoin (TON) is showing signs of a tentative recovery, currently trading at approximately $1.34 (approx. ₹120.87). Despite a broader market "crypto crunch" that has seen the asset drop over 63% compared to February 2025, TON is beginning to stabilize. While it remains in a long-term "bearish trend" below its 200-day SMA, localized demand is building as it tests critical support levels.
2026 Forecast Summary
Market sentiment is currently "Oversold but Recovering." Technical analysts are eyeing a mid-February target of $1.51, with a more ambitious monthly forecast pointing toward a $2.00–$2.40 range if the bullish breakout level of $1.60 is breached.
| Period | Potential Low | Potential High | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $1.26 | $2.40 | Bottoming / Relief Rally |
| Mid 2026 | $2.15 | $6.50 | Recovery / Adoption |
| End 2026 | $4.00 | $13.00+ | Bullish / Mainstream |
Key Market Catalysts
* Oversold Momentum: With a Daily RSI of 32.87, TON is deep in oversold territory. Historically, such levels on the 4-hour and daily charts have preceded "V-shaped" relief rallies, especially as institutional liquidity on Binance and Bybit remains steady.
* Network Maturity: TON’s ecosystem continues to expand, with development focus shifting toward gasless transactions and slashing optimization. These protocol upgrades, scheduled throughout 2026, are expected to lower the barrier for Telegram-based dApps.
* Institutional Accumulation: Despite the 24% monthly decline, 24-hour trading volumes have stabilized around $83 million. This "boring" price action suggests that "weak hands" have been flushed out, leaving the supply in the hands of long-term "whales" defending the $1.30 floor.
