According to the latest Binance options chain data (contracts expiring on February 27), the market is releasing strong hedging signals:
📊 Core Observations:
1️⃣ Huge Put Barrier: The open interest for puts at $70,000 has surged to $9.3M, with a Delta absolute value of 0.54. This indicates that large capital has established a tight "defensive position" or hedging protection at this price level. 2️⃣ IV is at a relatively high level: ATM IV remains around 53%. Although price volatility has narrowed, option premiums are not cheap, reflecting the market's high expectations for a breakout within the next 16 days. 3️⃣ Gamma squeeze risk: Once BTC stabilizes above $70,000, the market makers originally protecting bearish positions will be forced to close their positions, potentially triggering a explosive rise towards $75,000 (the maximum holding area).
💡 Actionable Suggestions:
Conservative: Consider constructing a Bull Put Spread (sell $68k / buy $66k). Capitalize on high IV to earn premiums while leveraging the dense support levels below.
Aggressive: If BTC breaks above $69,500 with volume, a small position can be taken in a Call calendar spread to capture Gamma gains targeting $75,000.
Risk Warning: Be aware of the accelerated Theta decay brought by the 16-day expiry, and non-trend players should avoid naked buying of OTM Calls.
