According to the MicroStrategy retention cost analysis chart, there is still room for the value of Bitcoin to decline.
This chart compares two matters concerning MicroStrategy (MSTR) during the period from 2021 to 2026: the amount of Bitcoin held, and whether this Bitcoin is currently generating a profit or incurring losses. The gray line represents the amount of Bitcoin held, while the red line represents the unrealized profit or loss.
Let's start by looking at the holdings. During the period from 2021 to 2024, MicroStrategy slowly and gradually increased its holdings. The real change occurred in 2025 when the amount of Bitcoin held surged significantly, reaching nearly 700,000 coins, clearly indicating the beginning of an intensive accumulation process that year.
Next, let's look at the gains and losses. In the early years, the red line hovered around zero, meaning that the gains were minimal and the losses were not significant. In 2025, with the massive increase in the size of the positions and the rising price of Bitcoin, unrealized profits at one point approached 30 billion dollars. But the problem was that this position was extremely large, highly sensitive to price fluctuations, and when the price later dropped, the unrealized profits quickly evaporated.
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