Let me share something I don’t usually talk about publicly: positions I’m building before they’re obvious. Started small buys on $XPL this week and want to explain the thinking.

Why Now After Such a Brutal Drop

$XPL crashed 93% from $1.80 to $0.10. That’s portfolio-destroying pain for anyone who bought the top. I get why most people won’t touch this with a ten-foot pole right now.

But here’s what changed my mind from observer to participant.

First, the $0.10 level has held through repeated tests. I’ve watched it get hit five times in two weeks. Each time, buyers show up. Not with massive green candles, just steady absorption that prevents breakdown. That tells me someone is building a position here and doesn’t want price running away yet.

Second, I checked @plasma development activity expecting to find a dead project. Instead found consistent GitHub commits, partnership announcements, and actual feature releases. The team is building through the bear market, which separates survivors from pretenders.

Third, the risk/reward math finally makes sense. At $1.80, the downside was massive and upside was limited. At $0.10, it’s flipped. Even if this drops another 50% to $0.05, that’s manageable with proper position sizing. But if it recovers to even $0.30, that’s 200%. To $0.50 is 400%.

My Actual Strategy

I’m not going all-in or making this a large position. Started with 2% of my portfolio at $0.11. Will add another 1-2% if we get confirmation of higher lows forming. Total max allocation is 5%, which means even total loss is survivable.

Stop loss is set at $0.08. If we break that level convincingly, the accumulation thesis is wrong and I exit. Until then, I’m comfortable holding and potentially averaging down if we get one more capitulation wick.

What I’m Watching

For this thesis to play out, I need to see several things happen:

Bitcoin needs to stabilize and form a base. If BTC is bleeding, altcoins like $XPL have no chance of recovery.

@plasma needs to keep shipping. Development activity must remain consistent. Any sign of the team slowing down or pivoting away from the original vision kills the thesis.

Volume needs to increase on bounces from $0.10. Right now we’re seeing decreasing volume, which suggests seller exhaustion. But for reversal confirmation, I want to see volume pick up as price rises.

Social sentiment needs to shift from complete apathy to cautious interest. Not euphoria, just acknowledgment that maybe this project isn’t dead.

The Contrarian Bet

This is uncomfortable. Buying $XPL at $0.10 feels wrong. The chart is ugly. Nobody’s talking about it positively. Every instinct says stay away.

But my best trades have always been the uncomfortable ones. The positions I built when charts looked terrible and everyone thought I was crazy. The key is sizing it so you can stomach the discomfort without it affecting your sleep or decision-making.

Realistic Expectations

I’m not expecting $XPL to go back to $1.80 next week or even next month. This is a 6-12 month hold minimum, probably longer. The thesis is that @plasma builds real adoption during the bear market, and when the next bull cycle starts, capital flows to projects that survived and executed.

If I’m wrong, I lose 2-5% of my portfolio. Annoying but not devastating. If I’m right, this could be a 5-10x over the next year or two. That’s the asymmetric risk/reward I look for.

Why Share This Publicly

Honestly, sharing helps me stay accountable to the strategy. It’s easy to panic sell when you’re doing it privately. Harder when you’ve publicly stated your thesis and plan.

Also, I’m genuinely curious if others are seeing what I’m seeing or if I’m completely off base here. The best learning comes from other perspectives challenging your assumptions.

What’s your take? Am I catching a falling knife or positioning early for a recovery?