Several strong metrics indicate a turning point in the cycle — such periods often determine the market direction for months ahead.
— The Bitcoin Vector indicator previously accurately marked the altcoin rally and subsequent reversal in January. The market is currently in a BTC cycle, but the indicators are gradually shifting towards altcoins.
— In Nexo, 56.2% of collateral is BTC. The range holds at 54–60%, indicating high confidence in the asset even after the correction.
— The ratio of realized profits to losses is 1 to 4. This is a classic phase of capitulation after local peaks.
— According to Bitwise, Bitcoin is currently historically undervalued relative to gold.
When BTC is used as collateral instead of being sold — this is a sign of long-term confidence, not speculation. Large participants prefer to take liquidity against Bitcoin, expecting higher prices in the future.
At the same time, the market is undergoing a 'cleansing': weak hands are locking in losses, while more patient capital gradually takes over the supply.
— The phase of capitulation may be accompanied by sharp squeezes.
— If BTC continues to dominate, altcoins may remain under pressure.
— Any deterioration of the microphone can delay recovery.
Reversals almost always form at moments when the majority is already frustrated with the market. But confirmation of the trend comes only after the return of demand and an increase in liquidity.
The market structure increasingly resembles the late stage of a correction: confidence in BTC remains, undervaluation is growing, weak participants are exiting.
It's still early to talk about the start of alt season — but the foundation for the next impulse is gradually being formed.
This is not financial advice.
