The American trading company Jump Trading is strengthening its presence in prediction markets. The firm has agreed to acquire stakes in the platforms Kalshi and Polymarket in exchange for providing liquidity and trading capabilities.
The deals reflect the growing interest of institutional players in the event contracts segment, which has significantly increased in both volume and company valuations over the past year.
How deals with Kalshi and Polymarket are structured
According to agency sources, the agreement with Kalshi provides for a fixed share of Jump in the platform's capital. In the case of Polymarket, the structure is different: the size of the stake will increase as the volume of liquidity that Jump provides to the U.S. platform grows.
Both deals are structured under a venture model, where the market maker receives an equity stake in the company instead of the classic reward for trading services. This scheme is increasingly used in segments where stable liquidity remains a key success factor.
Platform valuations and institutional interest
Jump's interest coincided with a sharp rise in valuations of leading prediction market players. Polymarket, according to the latest data, is valued at around $9 billion, while Kalshi raised funding with a valuation of about $11 billion.
The growth in capitalization confirms that prediction markets have ceased to be a niche product and have begun attracting systemic capital. Institutional participants view them as a new class of financial instruments that combine elements of derivatives and alternative markets.
Strategic shift at Jump Trading
For Jump Trading, this is a significant step in business development. The company was founded over 25 years ago by former traders from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and traditionally specialized in high-frequency trading and market making.
In recent months, Jump has been actively building expertise in the event contracts segment. According to Bloomberg, the firm has formed a team of more than 20 traders focused solely on prediction markets and has also invested in technological infrastructure to support these operations.
Why market makers are critical for prediction markets
Prediction markets directly depend on market makers who use their own capital to support quotes and take on opposing positions. This is especially important during periods of low liquidity or high uncertainty.
That is why platforms increasingly offer equity participation instead of commissions. For market makers, this is a way to achieve long-term upside, and for platforms — to secure strategic partners.
Not just Jump
Jump Trading is not the only large firm entering this segment. Susquehanna International Group previously publicly disclosed its collaboration with Kalshi as a market maker.
In 2025, Susquehanna, along with Robinhood Markets, acquired a controlling stake in LedgerX, gaining direct access to the infrastructure for listing and clearing event contracts in the U.S.
Prediction markets are growing, but risks remain
Despite the growth in volumes and valuations, the prediction market segment continues to be under the scrutiny of regulators. Kalshi and Polymarket offer contracts on a wide range of outcomes — from elections and macroeconomic data to weather events and sports.
The infrastructure remains fragmented, and competition among platforms is intensifying. In such conditions, access to liquidity and support from large market makers become a key factor for survival and scaling the business.
What's next?
Jump Trading's involvement confirms that prediction markets are moving from the experimental stage to a phase of institutionalization. As professional traders and capital enter, this segment could take a sustainable place alongside traditional derivatives.
Further growth will depend not only on investor interest but also on how regulators define the legal status of such contracts in the U.S. and other jurisdictions.
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