Some analysts are saying no. They're warning of a potential 50% drop from here.
Let's look at why.
First, the big picture. The crypto market has lost over a trillion dollars in less than a month. And there's a notable absence of strong buying on these dips. That tells us sentiment is fearful, not greedy.
Now, the macro story. China is making a major move. Reports say they are instructing their banks to cut exposure to U.S. Treasuries. They've been selling aggressively. China's holdings of U.S. debt are now at an 18-year low.
This is a big deal for de-dollarization. It puts pressure on the U.S. dollar. A weak dollar has usually been good for Bitcoin. But something changed last cycle.
In 2025, the U.S. dollar fell 9.4%. But Bitcoin ended the year down 6.3%. At the same time, gold rallied 65%. This was a major divergence. Bitcoin did not act as a safe haven. It failed that test.
Now, we're seeing that warning sign again. Look at the Bitcoin to Gold ratio. It just broke below a key support level at 15.50. Historically, breaks below this level have signaled major Bitcoin tops, not bottoms.
During the 2025 divergence, Bitcoin $BTC
fell from $30,000 to $15,500. That's a 50% drop.
So here's the situation. China is selling U.S. debt, pressuring the dollar. But Bitcoin is not benefiting like it used to. The ratio to gold is breaking down. This suggests investors are choosing gold over Bitcoin as the real safe haven.
This doesn't mean Bitcoin will definitely crash 50% tomorrow. But it means the conditions that have supported previous bottoms are not in place. The macro pressure is building, and Bitcoin's narrative is being tested.
Until Bitcoin can reclaim its role as a digital safe haven and strengthen against gold, the risk of a deeper drop remains. Analysts watching these charts are not calling a bottom at $70,000. They are warning it could be a top.
Watch the Bitcoin to Gold ratio. If it stays below 15.50, the bearish case gets stronger. The bottom may still be far away.
