🚨 Retail Sales Flash: U.S. Consumer Goes Quiet 📉

U.S. Retail Sales came in flat (0%) in December, missing expectations of +0.4% and confirming that the holiday spending boost was weaker than assumed.

This is a meaningful signal.

After months of resilience, consumers are finally pulling back — and retail sales sit at the core of U.S. GDP.

📊 What the data shows:

• Actual: 0%

• Forecast: 0.4%

• Previous: 0.6% (revised)

The slowdown appears broad-based, suggesting tightening budgets rather than a one-off seasonal miss.

🧠 What this means for markets:

1️⃣ Fed Policy: Softer demand strengthens the case for rate cuts later this year as growth momentum cools.

2️⃣ Liquidity Rotation: Lower rate expectations historically favor risk assets as capital searches for yield.

3️⃣ Dollar Pressure: Cooling growth raises downside risk for DXY if policy expectations shift.

🔍 Crypto angle:

If the data trend continues, markets may begin front-running a policy pivot — a setup that has historically supported BTC and ETH during early easing cycles.

This isn’t confirmation yet.

But it is another crack in the “strong consumer” narrative.

Macro doesn’t flip overnight — it tilts first.

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