Ethereum ($ETH reached the previously forecasted decline zone in early February when the price dropped to around $1,800. At one point, the quotes fell to $1,740, after which a corrective phase began. From the local minimum, the price of ETH increased by approximately 23%, which temporarily heightened investors' hopes for the end of the downward trend.
However, such rebounds often occur within a "bear market" and do not always mean the formation of a sustainable bottom. The key factor remains the presence of real demand. Currently, the combination of technical signals, on-chain metrics, and price movement structure continues to indicate weakness in buyers and ongoing risks of further declines in Ethereum's price.
ETH price: decline target reached, but selling pressure persists
On February 5, a major reversal pattern was completed on the daily chart of Ethereum, which analysts had previously indicated. Such patterns typically signal a shift of control to sellers. The projected target was near $1,800, and the market followed this scenario, reaching $1,740 by February 6.
After testing this zone, ETH partially recovered. The candle from February 6 formed a long lower shadow, which may indicate a local buy of the dip. However, the behavior of momentum indicators raises doubts about the sustainability of the growth.
From February 2 to February 8, the price of Ethereum formed a sequence of lower highs, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed an increase. This configuration indicates hidden bearish divergence: momentum improves, but the price is unable to break previous highs. This often indicates hidden selling pressure.
The "bear flag" on the Ethereum chart
The structure of the current movement also raises concerns. A classic continuation pattern of the downward trend — the "bear flag" — is forming on the 12-hour timeframe.
Initially, the price of ETH sharply declined, then transitioned into a bullish channel phase with moderate growth. In a weak market, such a pattern often concludes with a new wave of selling.
Trading volumes confirm this scenario. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) does not show a confident increase following the price. The lack of aggressive volume inflow indicates that major players are not participating in the current rebound. Furthermore, OBV is approaching a breakout of its own ascending trend line, which could provoke an acceleration of the decline.
If this scenario unfolds, the potential decline of Ethereum is estimated at around 50% from current levels.
On-chain data: growth is supported by speculators
Blockchain data analysis shows that the recovery of ETH's price is mainly driven by short-term traders. Long-term capital has not yet returned to the market.
The key indicator here is STH-NUPL — the unrealized profit and loss metric for short-term holders. When the price fell to $1,740 in early February, the STH-NUPL value dropped to -0.72, corresponding to the capitulation zone.
During the subsequent 23% rebound, the indicator recovered to -0.47. Although the indicator remains in negative territory, such a rapid improvement indicates the activity of speculators who rushed to buy the local bottom. This kind of dynamics has previously led to false market reversals multiple times.
A similar situation was observed in March 2025. At that time, the recovery of NUPL created the illusion of a bottom forming, but the actual foundation was established much later — after a deeper phase of capitulation and the price of ETH falling to around $1,470.
The current structure of on-chain data resembles the early stage when selling pressure had not yet been fully exhausted.
The behavior of long-term holders of Ethereum
An additional negative signal remains the behavior of HODLers. The Hodler Net Position Change metric, which reflects the actions of investors holding ETH for more than 155 days, continues to remain in negative territory.
If on February 4 the net outflow was around -10,681 ETH, by February 8 it increased to -19,399 ETH. This indicates a nearly 82% increase in net sales in just a few days. Long-term investors continue to reduce positions despite the local price increase.
Thus, the current rebound in Ethereum is primarily supported by short-term market participants, while large capital remains cautious.
Key support levels and potential targets for ETH decline
The technical picture highlights several important price zones:
$1,990 is the nearest short-term support;
$1,750 is the Fibonacci support level;
$1,510 is the deep correction zone, close to the previous market low;
$1,000 is a potential target upon full realization of the "bear flag" pattern.
A daily close below $1,990 will increase pressure on the market. Losing the $1,750 level will open the way to the $1,500 area. In the event of a negative scenario developing, the price of Ethereum could drop to $1,000, which corresponds to a decline of nearly 50% from current values.
Conclusion: the risk of a decline #Ethereum remains high
Ethereum continues to trade below key resistances. Volumes remain weak, long-term holders are locking in positions, and the market is largely controlled by speculators. Until signs of sustainable demand and a return of large capital emerge, the risk of a significant decline in ETH remains.