I remember a time when a simple macro data point discreetly changed market psychology while the majority slept. This is exactly how I feel about the latest retail sales figures in the United States.
On paper, the number seems trivial. Forecasts anticipated an increase; reality offers us total stagnation. No growth, no euphoria. But behind this "flat", the story is clear: the American consumer is letting go.
Why is this crucial for us?
When daily spending slows down, it's a sign that households are under pressure. Between persistent inflation and dwindling savings, confidence is eroding. People are taking a pause.
Here is the domino effect that the crypto market is already anticipating:
Decrease in spending ➔ Decrease in inflationary pressure.
Less inflation ➔ The Fed loses its main argument to remain "hawkish" (aggressive).
Fed pivot or pause ➔ The massive return of liquidity narratives.
The advantage of the "Early Bird"
This is where most investors make the mistake of waiting. Bitcoin doesn’t wait for the news cycle to be confirmed by the mainstream media. Prices react to anticipation, not to the past.
Golden rule: At the moment everyone is crying out for the return of rate cuts, the market will have already priced in the movement.
These moments of apparent calm often prepare for the biggest trend shifts. It's not speculation; it's just the data doing its job. The question is not whether these numbers matter, but who will interpret them before others.
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