Do you think that a sharp decline marks the end of the bottom? On the contrary, it's exactly the opposite.
When the market trends in a straight line on a monthly chart, yet there are still reasons for shorting everywhere—this is where the real reversal may be hidden.
Why? Because trading is not based on price, but on memory. After three years of decline, the brain has been trained to see "a rebound as a shorting point." Even if the price has flattened, as long as it doesn't surge, the belief in shorting will automatically continue.
More importantly, large funds at the bottom are often not pushing the market up, but rather "feeding the bearish consensus." Sideways movement, slow declines, false breakouts, sudden drops... all these actions reinforce one conclusion: rising prices cannot be trusted, and shorting is safe.
Thus, emotions become extreme: the price is at the floor, the downside is limited, and the upside potential is huge, but positions and emotions are completely tilted to one side. Short positions are piling up, leverage is concentrated, and everyone is repeating the same narrative.
When the vast majority feel a sense of security in shorting because "everyone thinks this way," the risk has actually quietly reversed. The market always starts at the most unexpected and unbelievable moments—not when bulls are at their craziest, but when bears are the most certain and least willing to admit they are wrong.
So, if you see the monthly line as flat as a ruler, yet the market is still calling for shorts, don’t rush to follow. That may not be the end, but rather the calm before a storm.
Remember, the market never rewards those who are late to realize; it only punishes those who dwell in the past.
