Today $BTC is trading significantly above 60k. (68,962.00). But this level remains key for the long-term scenario.
Why are market opinions so varied?
Some are confident: by the end of 2026 BTC will be below 40,000.
Others calmly talk about 150,000+.
And the reason for this gap is not emotions, but different benchmarks that market participants are looking at.
1️⃣ Why bulls are looking at gold
Those who are waiting for Bitcoin above 150k are studying not the news and not the headlines,
and the gold chart $XAU
👇 Below is the chart
Do you see this? Almost a mirror structure: — an ascending trend
accumulation phase
point of maximum tension
From a similar level, gold showed an impulse: 📈 +247% — from 1613 to 5598. Yes, gold needed a little more than three years.
Will Bitcoin be able to go this route faster — an open question. But if BTC repeats the same +247% from 60k, the price target is around 208,200.
That is why the growth scenario to 150k+ does not seem fantastic.
2️⃣ Another coincidence that cannot be ignored
Look at the second chart👇
Gold started its rise exactly from the ascending trend line. From that very point at which Bitcoin is right now.
For bulls, this is not a coincidence, but a reminder that the market loves recurring scenarios.
3️⃣ Why do many still expect a fall
Because Bitcoin has its own painful moment.
👇 The third chart.
March 2020. BTC was also on the ascending trend line. Many hoped for a rise, but...
in just one week the market received: −44.44%. If this scenario repeats, Bitcoin may well drop to around 33,336.
This is where the market decides what the next year will be like.
$60,000 is not just a support level.
This is the point that sets the scenario for months ahead.
A consolidation above 72k–75k may confirm the strength of the market and trigger movement along the 'golden' scenario.
Below, the market will remind that even the strongest trends can break sharply and without warning.
$60k is not a zone of emotions, but a zone of decisions.
Here, patience is valued more than courage.
Here, it is not the fastest that wins, but the calmest.
And not every rise is a signal, just as not every fall is an end.
What scenario are you expecting? $BTC below 40k or above 150k by the end of 2026?
