Wintermute Market Analysis: Bitcoin Volatility and AI Fund Rotation

On February 10, Wintermute stated:

Bitcoin dropped to $60,000 last Monday, wiping out all gains since Trump's election. Spot fund flows show structural pressure, with the Coinbase premium consistently in a discount state, indicating sustained selling pressure in the U.S. market.

In recent months, AI-related assets have continuously absorbed market funds, squeezing the allocation space for crypto assets. Crypto assets performed poorly when the AI sector surged and dropped more significantly during downturns.

Last week's market was described as a 'surrender-style clearance,' with volatility soaring and buying support appearing near $60,000. However, spot trading remains relatively low, with leverage becoming the dominant factor in price fluctuations.

A true structural recovery requires a return of spot demand, but currently, there is almost no evidence to support this.

Market Analysis: We expect we are entering a high-volatility, oscillating price discovery phase. Unless the Coinbase premium turns positive, ETF fund flows reverse, and basis rates stabilize, sustainable upward momentum is unlikely to occur.

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